We have a loaded college basketball slate on Tuesday that features three top-25 matchups in the SEC and a juicy Big 12 tilt at 11 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Our staff has pinpointed four separate games to target for this slate.
So, here's our NCAAB best bets and odds, including four top picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 14.
NCAAB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mississippi State vs. Auburn
The situational spot screams Bulldogs, who are looking to rebound from a tough upset loss to Kentucky at home.
Meanwhile, the Johni Broome-less Tigers barely squeaked by South Carolina last Saturday, and it looks like they’re begging for a loss. I suspect Auburn is in for a long day against a physical, hard-nosed, Chris Jans-led squad.
From a schematic perspective, Broome’s absence likely hurts most on the offensive side of the ball. He’s the triggerman for Bruce Pearl’s flex-motion offense, which would completely unpack Jans’ aggressive ball-screen coverage if he were available.
Broome’s de-facto replacement — Dylan Cardwell — isn’t quite as offensively gifted as Broome, so I worry about the Tigers sustaining their top-rated offense (in KenPom) without the nation’s best big man.
That said, Cardwell is a rather adept defender, and he’s much laterally quicker than Broome on the perimeter.
So, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pearl run less drop-coverage defense and more hard-hedge coverage. I think that’ll be a bonus against Mississippi State’s ball-screen-centric offense, as the Tigers can play more aggressively against Josh Hubbard and Co. instead of funneling their dribble penetration.
Ultimately, I project a low-scoring rock fight. However, that would limit possessions and put points at a premium, and it could be challenging for Auburn to cover a three-possession spread without its best player against a fired-up Bulldogs squad.
Therefore, I’ll happily back the road ‘dog and the under in this SEC showdown.
Pick: Mississippi State +7.5 (Play to +7) | Under 150.5 (Play to 149)
Illinois vs. Indiana
By Greg Waddell
Indiana’s Jekyll and Hyde season continues as the Hoosiers play host to Illinois on Tuesday at Assembly Hall.
It can be a dangerous game trying to predict which version of Indiana shows up under Mike Woodson, as evidenced by its four blowout losses, which have all come by 16 points or more.
The other common thread with those losses is they all came against quality opponents. Indiana is 0-4 against KenPom top-45 teams and 13-0 against all other teams in college basketball.
The Hoosiers' size and strength has been enough to overpower lesser opponents, but it hasn’t held up against teams with similar size and a lot more skill.
Size and skill is the entire formula for the Illini.
Illinois has the eighth-highest average height in college hoops this season, and employs a 6-foot-6 point guard alongside a 6-foot-7, 6-foot-9 and 7-foot-1 trio in the frontcourt. Their length bothers opposing offenses, which is why they rank 10th nationally in 2-point percentage defense and fifth in defensive rebounding.
Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois’ star in the backcourt, has missed the last two games with a mysterious forearm injury. His status hangs over this game, but we've seen Illinois blow out a mediocre team without him already when it topped Penn State by 39 points last week.
With Jakucionis, expect Illinois to blow Indiana out. Without him, it should still cover the number at -3.5.
Pick: Illinois -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
Missouri vs. Florida
By John Feltman
The Tigers’ offense ranks 28th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’re also 15th in the country in effective field goal percentage and have a very deep basketball team.
Missouri has a lot of size, which will allow it to match up with Florida’s physical frontcourt. I also like that the Tigers take a ton of 3s, just like the Gators do.
Both Florida and Mizzou rank inside the top 45 in 3-point percentage, specifically the Gators, who are a sparklingly third in the country in that category.
The Tigers also score extremely well inside the arc. Even though the Gators are seventh in defensive 2-point percentage, they'll have opportunities.
The Tigers don't like to go fast on offense, but I feel like Florida will turn the matchup into a track meet. I also like that the Gators’ offensive performance was underwhelming this past weekend, which leads me to believe we'll see a solid offensive bounce-back effort.
What’s also working in our favor is that the Tigers are second in the nation in free throw attempts per game, which means they love to earn their trips to the foul line. That'll give them an abundance of chances to generate easy points with no time coming off the clock.
Florida should be able to take advantage of Missouri's poor perimeter defense, which has allowed its opponents to shoot 36% from deep. The Tigers also rank outside the top 250 in offensive rebounds per game, allowing the Gators plenty of easy put backs and second-scoring chances.
It’s also no surprise that the Gators' offense is this talented, considering they're led by arguably the best backcourt in the country. Missouri doesn’t have the defensive chops to contain them for 40 minutes, even if they have the depth advantage.
Missouri is coming off decisive wins against LSU and Vanderbilt, but I believe it'll have its hands full here. The Tigers should get plenty of scoring chances, though, and I consider this an excellent spot for both teams to shine in what should be a fun offensive affair.
Pick: Over 154.5 (Play to 156.5)
Baylor vs. Arizona
Baylor has won six of its last seven and Arizona has won six in a row. So, what gives in this matchup?
Well, I think Baylor has the potential to keep this game close, but I'm more interested in targeting the over.
Both teams are in the top 20 nationally in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric and they both love to convert quickly off steals.
Baylor's overall tempo (283rd nationally in adjusted tempo, via KenPom) is a cause for concern, and a Baylor game (vs. a D-I opponent) also hasn't reached the 150+ total point mark since mid-December.
However, the Bears haven't played Arizona, which is likely to control the tempo and speed up the game on its home court (55th in adjusted tempo).
Baylor will happily play that style if forced to do so, especially with a terrific guard quartet consisting of VJ Edgecombe, Robert Wright III, Jeremy Roach and Jayden Nunn.
Norchad Omier (15.9 PPG, 10.6 RPG) is also going to be a load for Arizona to handle on the interior, creating more avenues for the Bears to score.
Finally, Caleb Love is due for a massive game for the Wildcats. The guard has shot 11-of-37 over the last three games after combining for 80 points in the three outings before that. If Arizona's guard is on, that's another excellent sign for our total to hit.
Overtime could also be in play based on how these two have competed over the last month.
Pick: Over 148.5 (Play to 150.5)
