Houston vs. Oregon Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 130.5 -114o / -106u | -215 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 130.5 -114o / -106u | +176 |
Well, we thought this would be the main event, but two upsets on Tuesday have sent Oregon and Houston to the undercard.
The consolation bout will be a battle between two teams with aspirations of deep NCAA Tournament runs.
Both teams were outplayed in the semifinals. Oregon managed just 0.794 points per possession against Saint Mary’s, while Houston allowed an uncharacteristic 1.06 points per possession against Wisconsin and went a ghastly 8-of-15 from the charity stripe.
Houston is a top-five defensive team, so there’s little chance it relapses again and allows the Ducks to score over one point per possession.
Oregon, on the other hand, has shown a pattern of futility early in the season.
Houston Cougars
Houston qualifies as a good team and despite a so-so performance against the Badgers, it is one of the most efficient offensive squads in the country.
The Cougars should have a field day inside the paint, where the Ducks have been particularly vulnerable. While Oregon has “height," it lacks “strength." Houston, with its four forwards who could start for anyone in the country, is chock full of strength.
Expect the Cougars to dominate the offensive glass and to score at will on the interior.
Oregon Ducks
The Ducks brought in several new pieces this offseason and they have yet to fully gel. Quincy Guerrier, Dana Altman’s prized Syracuse transfer, scored just two points against the Gaels and came into the game averaging just a hair over eight points per game.
He poured in 13.7 points per outing and was an All-ACC player with the Orange.
Oregon was scorched by BYU on November 16th, allowing 1.23 PPP. Saint Mary’s scored 1.02 PPP. Per KenPom, the Ducks rank outside the top-300 nationally in eFG%. They just can’t stop good teams.
Houston vs. Oregon Betting Pick
Oregon will need to figure out how to score against the Houston defense. Kelvin Sampson preaches taking away the middle of the court, so Oregon will have to rely on jump shooting to score. That can be feast or famine, and so far it’s been mostly famine for the Ducks.
I have little confidence in the Ducks’ ability to score against a Houston team out for blood after dropping a game outright as a seven-point favorite. While Oregon lost outright as a favorite as well, its game was far more of a toss-up pre-game from an analytical perspective.
The Ducks are still looking to fully mesh and correct a slow start to their season. Houston is the wrong opponent for that trend to change.
Houston wins comfortably and takes home the third-place hardware.
Pick: Houston -6
