Indiana vs. Iowa Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -115 | 149.5 -120o / +100u | +165 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -105 | 149.5 -120o / +100u | -195 |
The Iowa Hawkeyes will host the Indiana Hoosiers in what looks to be one of the fastest-paced matchups of the Big Ten season.
Iowa is currently 11-3-1 to the over this season with a high-octane offense while playing little-to-no defense. Indiana is much the opposite. The Hoosiers have one of the best defenses in the country, but they do have the offensive artillery and speed to match up with Iowa’s tempo.
These combinations should lead to a cover on the over.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana is a relatively sloppy offensive team, ranking 211th in turnover percentage at 19.5%. The Hoosiers are otherwise effective offensively If they can limit turnovers. Parker Stewart and Miller Kopp are both significant deep threats, both hitting over 37.5% of 3-point attempts. As a unit, Indiana shoots around 35% from deep.
However, most of Indiana's offense comes from inside with Trayce Jackson-Davis, who averages 19.4 points and 8.7 rebounds. He can crash the glass on both ends and shoots over 60%.
Filip Rebraca or Keegan Murray will likely defend him for Iowa. In the Hawkeyes' game against Wisconsin, both Stephen Crowl and Tyler Wahl took advantage of the Hawkeye posts, so it's a pretty safe assumption to believe Jackson-Davis will be even better.
The Hoosiers also excel at getting to the stripe. According to KenPom’s FTA/FGA (free throw attempts to field goal attempts) ratio, they rank 51st in the country. They shoot only 68.5% from the line, but Jackson-Davis draws almost six fouls per game. Given Iowa’s inability to keep up with the pace of other posts, Indiana will probably take advantage.
The Indiana defense is elite, so this may be a concern for those looking to back the over. The Hoosiers do not turn over opponents, though, which will play into Iowa’s hands since the Hawkeyes are the most disciplined offensive team in the country (first in turnover percentage).
Indiana does defend the paint well, and much of this is attributable to Jackson-Davis’ 10.5% block rate. Iowa is the best in the country at shying away from blocks at only 4.0%, so this should negate Jackson-Davis’ effectiveness on the defensive end.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is also a great shooting team. There is a reason the Hawkeyes rank third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom, and it's because they hit 35.5% of their 3-points attempts and 55.6% of shots inside the arc. Jordan Bohannon and Keegan Murray are both threats from outside, shooting 40.2% and 36.5%, respectively, while Payton Sandfort is another alternative off the Hawkeyes bench for outside shooting.
Murray makes 68.6% of his shots inside the arc, so it will be tough for the Hoosiers to contain him, even if he is paired against Jackson-Davis.
Iowa’s offensive rebounding could be a concern. Indiana ranks in the top 20 in defensive rebounding, so this says the Hawkeyes will only have one opportunity to score each time down the floor. Still, Iowa crashes the glass 31.4% offensively, so it will have some chances for second shots.
The most significant edge to the over in this one comes with the Iowa pace. They use less than 15 seconds per possession, ranking as the fifth-fastest team in all of college hoops. Their 156th-ranked defense should allow Indiana to get buckets at will, too.
Indiana vs. Iowa Betting Pick
The Big Ten stars should shine in this game. Both Murray and Jackson-Davis lead top-heavy offenses and match up well with their respective opponents.
Iowa will need to hit its outside shots to speed up the tempo of this game, but this should not be much of an issue since Indiana does not defend the arc as well as the inside.
The market has not quite caught up to the pace of this Hawkeye basketball team, so take the over at 150, and play to 152.
