Purdue vs. Minnesota Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 142 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 142 -110o / -110u | N/A |
The Purdue Boilermakers take to the road to “The Barn” in Minneapolis.
Minnesota has dropped two close games in a row to Wisconsin and Ohio State, and six of its last seven. Purdue comes into this game after winning three straight, including a buzzer-beating win over Ohio State on Sunday at home.
This may be a “buy-high” spot on the Boilermakers, but Matt Painter’s size advantage will give them a massive leg up on the Golden Gophers in this matchup and should propel them to a cover on the road.
Purdue Boilermakers
The most significant edge for the Boilermakers, as with their matchups with most teams, is their size. Zach Edey and Trevion Williams are lethal in the paint.
They can also crash the glass from the wings and guard positions. There's a reason they rank sixth in offensive rebounding percentage and 25th in defensive rebounding percentage. Meanwhile, Minnesota is on the opposite end of those very same rankings, especially on offense. The Gophers are next to dead last in offensive rebounding at 354th out of 358 teams.
Eric Curry and Jamison Battle are the primary Gopher rebounders, but it quickly plummets after these two. Purdue will haul in offensive rebounds aplenty and prevent the Gophers from earning second chances.
Building off of that, Battle is the leading scorer on Minnesota at 17.6 points per game. Outside of Iowa, which has a horrendous defense, most of the other teams in the Big Ten that have beaten the Gophers have at least mitigated the risk of leaving Battle open. Given the size advantage, for Purdue, it is hard to envision much success for Battle.
On the other side of the floor, the Minnesota bigs will have zero chance to match up with arguably the best offensive attack in college basketball.
The Golden Gophers excel at defending the perimeter, but their lack of height will come to light in this one. They allow opponents to shoot 50.9% from 2-point range, so holding Jaden Ivey (driving to the hole), Edey, and Williams in check will be a difficult task.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota’s best chance of covering the spread in this game is 3-point shooting. Typically, only 31.8% of the Gophers' scoring distribution has come from beyond the arc, but they will need to hit outside shots. After all, they do shoot 35.4% collectively from deep, so there's a chance they can remain within striking distance of the Boilermakers.
Battle, Payton Willis, and E.J. Stephens are the usual suspects. Each shoots above 36% from deep, so they will need to knock down their 3s to provide a fighting chance for Minnesota.
In addition, the Gophers may not make a ton of inside shots or be able to find a way around Edey and the Boilermakers. But when the Purdue bigs rest, Minnesota has a shot at succeeding.
Even with them on the floor, Purdue is allowing the opposition to shoot 48.1% inside the arc on the season, which ranks 120th in the country. This infers that Battle and company will have some opportunities inside if they can move the ball quickly.
Purdue vs. Minnesota Betting Pick
Given how slow Minnesota plays, Purdue should be able to settle in on defense even if that's not its strong suit.
There are far too many advantages for the Boilermakers, which should make the Minnesota defense exhausted over the course of the game.
Yes, they're on the road, but the Boilers have enough of a size advantage to limit the Minnesota offense. Sasha Stefanovic may not drain as many 3s as usual, but Edey and Williams should have massive games inside.
Take Purdue at -10.5, and play it to -12.
