Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 +100 | 126.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -120 | 126.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
In a battle of top-25 Big 12 teams, Texas Tech takes to the road as slight underdogs against Iowa State. Both of these teams thrive on the defensive end, so this has the makings of a classic, bruising battle between conference foes.
However, the total is not the line to target here because Iowa State is vastly underrated by the market at home. Let's explore why.
Red Raiders Need to Take Care of the Ball
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been underwhelming when matched up with stronger competition. Yes, they have a victory against Tennessee, but they have dropped their other two top-50 KenPom contests (Gonzaga and Providence). Iowa State falls into the same tier of teams, so heading on the road in their first tough game since December 18 will be a rude awakening.
The Red Raiders are a sloppy basketball team. They turn the ball over more than 20% of the time on offense. Unfortunately for their sake, Iowa State is elite in this category, turning over its opposition on 26.7% of possessions, ranking sixth in the NCAA.
The one advantage the Red Raiders have is scoring distribution. They have five players averaging at least nine points per game (Terrance Shannon, Jr., Kevin McCullar, Bryson Williams, Davion Warren and Kevin Obanor). They also crash the glass at an elite level on both offense and defense, averaging 40.4 boards per game.
Texas Tech also has the ability to turn opponents over. It ranks 20th (24.3%) in turnovers on defense.
Iowa State's Edge is Beyond the Arc
Iowa State has a clear advantage in the backcourt with Izaiah Brockington, Gabe Kalscheur and Tyrese Hunter. The Cyclones do not have the depth or scoring versatility of Texas Tech, but Brockington himself averages more than 17 PPG and makes 42.3% of shots outside the 3-point arc. Caleb Grill also shoots 42.9% 3-point range.
These two are extremely efficient and the Cyclones will use their shooting to open up the post for Aljaz Kunc and George Conditt IV. In fact, Kunc is not too shabby himself as a post, hitting 14-of-27 threes this year.
Since Texas Tech allows the second-most threes in college basketball, Iowa State will have plenty of opportunities there.
On the other hand, Texas Tech has its own threats from behind the arc, shooting 35.0% as a unit. The Cyclones are potentially the best team at defending the perimeter, though. They rank fifth in allowed three-point percentage at 25.3%.
Texas Tech should only be able to score from inside in this game.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Betting Pick
The Cyclones have proven themselves time and time again this season. They out-shot Xavier, Memphis, Creighton and Iowa, all teams comparable in overall talent to Texas Tech.
With the Red Raiders playing a much weaker schedule and only holding one resume-building win in their grasp, they're being overvalued in this Big 12 contest.
Iowa State will be extremely efficient from outside and if Kalscheur can start knocking down outside shots, like he did at Minnesota, they have yet another offensive weapon.
Take the ‘Clones at home at -1 (-110), and play to -3 (-110). Iowa State should be larger favorites in their home gym.
