The nation’s deepest league is set to serve up a handful of top-10 matchups in the coming months, and it gets started with Tennessee vs. Florida at the O’Connell Center on Tuesday night.
I have a pick for that and one other matchup on Tuesday.
So, here's college basketball predictions, odds and picks in my betting card for Tuesday, January 7.
Tennessee vs. Florida
Under Billy Donovan, the O’Dome was a house of horrors for opposing teams. But in recent years, the Gators have lost their bite on their home floor. Todd Golden has been the model of mediocrity, posting a .500 record against the spread at home.
But there’s something different about this year’s team in Gainesville.
For starters, Florida has proven it can dominate quality opponents on both ends of the floor. The Gators find themselves inside the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per Evan Miyakawa.
They’ve limited six opponents to 60 points or less, suffocating them in the half-court with the 12th-best effective field goal percentage defense.
And when it’s time to run — something UF loves to do — it's exploded for 90+ points on five occasions. This gives the Gators the flexibility to win in different ways, which leads us to this top-10 tussle with Tennessee.
The Vols haven’t been pulled out of their comfort zone yet this season. They prefer to play games in the 70s, relying on their impenetrable defense and plodding offensive style. The last time they lost a regular season game was against Kentucky last March when the Wildcats sped things way up during an 85-81 upset in Knoxville.
That’s how Florida is going to hand the Vols their first loss of the season.
The Gators play at the third-fastest tempo in the SEC, and score 19 fast break points per game (fourth nationally). I expect Golden’s team to push it in transition for 40 minutes, preventing Tennessee from settling into its fortress-like half-court defense.
The Gators average 1.29 “Kill Shots,” or 10-0+ runs, per game game (t-5th). I’m banking on at least one here during a win over Tennessee.
Pick: Florida ML -130 (Play to -150)
Tulane vs. UAB
The Blazers generated a fair amount of preseason buzz following an AAC Tournament title, 23 wins and a near-upset of San Diego State in the Round of 64 last spring.
But Andy Kennedy’s team has gotten off to a rotten start (8-7), hamstrung by five narrow defeats.
The Blazers’ slow start has created value on Tuesday night against a Tulane team that's been feasting on sub-par competition (350th strength of schedule).
Despite a soft schedule, Tulane has looked like an AAU team on the defensive end, fouling at an unsustainable rate. Nearly a quarter (23.1%) of opponent possessions end in a whistle going against Tulane, and that’s UAB’s bread and butter.
The Blazers score nearly 20% of their points from the line, lead the nation in fast break points and have tremendous offensive upside when they’re bringing the fight to their opponent.
Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB’s do-it-all big, has been doing everything but scoring as of late. He’s averaged over 11 boards, four assists and three “stocks” in his last three games.
When Lendeborg scored more than 20 points in AAC play last season, the Blazers finished 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. That included him eating up the Tulane frontcourt during a 78-67 road win in which he went off for 26/12/3.
I’m not only buying low on UAB, but I believe that Lendeborg is due for a big game. Tulane’s top player, Kaleb Banks, has been foul-prone as of late and if Lendeborg sends him to the bench early with two fouls, things could snowball.
I would go no higher than 8.5 in this spot.
Pick: UAB -8.5
