The Maine Black Bears take on the NJIT Highlanders in Newark, NJ. Tip-off is set for 11 a.m. ET on ESPN+.
Maine is favored by 9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -410. The total is set at 131 points.
Here are my Maine vs. NJIT predictions and college basketball picks for January 16, 2025.
Maine vs NJIT Prediction
My Pick: Under 129 or Better
My Maine vs NJIT best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Maine vs NJIT Odds
| Maine Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -112 | 131 -112 / -108 | -410 |
| NJIT Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -108 | 131 -112 / -108 | +320 |
- Maine vs NJIT spread: Maine -9
- Maine vs NJIT over/under: 131 points
- Maine vs NJIT moneyline: Maine -410, NJIT +320
- Maine vs NJIT best bet: Under 129.5 or Better
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm taking the under in this America East matinee.
My Pick: Under 129.5 or Better
Maine vs NJIT College Basketball Betting Preview
As it always does with Maine, it starts on the defensive end.
Kellen Tynes and Jaden Clayton form the best defensive backcourt duo in the America East (and one of the best among low-majors). Head coach Chris Markwood leverages that duo by playing aggressively and extended on defense, utilizing heavy on-ball pressure with a mix of 2-3 looks.
Ultimately, the Bears rank 15th nationally in defensive turnover rate (22%), with Tynes snatching an unreal 3.4 turnovers per game.
Naturally, running ball screens against Maine is impossible, given that Tynes and Clayton blow up everything at the point of attack (.63 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, 91st percentile). That bodes poorly for NJIT, which has a ball-screen-centric offense behind guards Tariq Francis and Sebastian Robinson.
The Highlanders will leverage switches on the perimeter to attack in isolation — not my favorite way to run an offense — and the Bears are a bit vulnerable in isolation (.89 PPP allowed, 23rd percentile).
I could see explosive forward Tim Moore Jr. managing some interior buckets against Maine’s sometimes-questionable frontcourt rotations.
But if Markwood sees his team getting burnt on switches, he’ll throw in an extended-pressure 2-3 zone, neutralizing any action NJIT wants to run. The Highlanders are a horrendous zone (.79 PPP, 11th percentile) and press (.60 PPP, first percentile) offense.
Even worse, the Highlanders are severely shorthanded.
Francis — a superstar point guard averaging 19 points and four assists per game — hasn’t played since before New Year’s. Walt Andrews Jr., Jake Goldberg, Malachi Arrington and Triston Wennersten also have missed time.
I’m uncertain if any will suit up for Thursday’s matinee.
That'll force most of the offense to run through Robinson. While he’s put forth a valiant high-usage effort for his squad, he’s too inefficient of a player to count on him as the first (and only) option.
Maine runs a ball-screen motion offense with Tynes and Clayton as the primary facilitators. Tynes has ascended into one of the league’s best distributors (five APG at a 28% rate), but much of that is thanks to his ascending wing corps.
AJ Lopez, Quion Burns and Christopher Mantis are becoming the wing shooters Markwood desperately needed in Orono, with the trio combining to shoot 88-for-230 (38%) from beyond the arc. Even Clayton is getting in on the action, shooting 38% (17-for-45) from deep.
When the wings can adequately space the floor and make shots, the lanes open up for Tynes to work in ball screens. Even better, the Bears can adjust once defenses extend by running a spread pick-and-roll attack with wing cutters, earning easy layup buckets behind the overextended spot-up defenders.
Maine’s shot-diet is noticeably improved year over year. The Bears are hooping.
That said, I would be shocked if Maine continued its torrid shooting pace. The Bears have shot 44% from 3 in their first three conference games, and they’re due for serious regression after shooting 20-for-40 (50%) in their past two games against Binghamton and Albany.
Things get ugly for Maine when the shots don’t fall, as defenders can sag toward the interior and clog up all the lanes, resulting in Tynes dribbling into double-teams for 20 seconds before finally unleashing a gross mid-range shot.
Maine shot 10-for-33 (30%) in a two-game stretch against Boston University and Bryant a few weeks ago. As a result, the Bears couldn’t get anything going on the interior, shooting 26-for-68 (38%) from 2-point range. They ultimately lost both games by scoring 55 and 56 points, respectively.
For what it’s worth, NJIT’s perimeter ball-screen coverage hasn’t been half bad (.73 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, 68th percentile), mainly because Robinson has improved mightily in that area (.58 PPP allowed, 79th percentile).
While the Highlanders' interior defense is horrendous, the Bears could have difficulty getting into their sets against Robinson and Co. if the perimeter shots don’t fall.
During an 11 a.m. morning tip in Newark, I could see the potentially sluggish Bears finally experiencing all that shooting regression, especially considering NJIT does a half-decent job of running opponents off the 3-point line.
Meanwhile, I don’t see the Francis-less Highlanders scoring much against an elite Black Bear perimeter defense, especially given Markwood’s superb defensive scheming.
So, ultimately, I'm expecting a rock fight and betting the under.
The biggest worry for the under is NJIT turning the ball over too often against Maine’s pressure, as the Black Bears aren’t opposed to turning those turnovers into transition buckets — they forced 20 turnovers against Albany and turned those into 18 fast-break points.
But otherwise, the pace shouldn’t be too crazy, and I doubt we see much efficient half-court offense.
Also, if you’re a trends bettor:
- Four of the past five head-to-head matchups stayed under the closing total.
- Four of NJIT’s five home games this season have stayed under.
- While Maine games are 10-6 to the over this year, ShotQualityBets has already projected its looming shooting regression, marking them with a 4-12 over record based on the “quality” of attempts taken and allowed.
