The NCAA Tournament tips off Tuesday with the first pair of First Four games. Wagner faces Howard for the right to face UNC, while Colorado State squares off against Virginia to see who will play Texas. On Wednesday, Grambling State takes on Montana State with the winner going up against Purdue, while Colorado and Boise State face off to see who will play Florida.
So, what trends do we need to know about the First Four round?
Well, fading the public has been quite successful, with the public hitting at a 40.4% clip against the spread (19-28). The public hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in the First Four since 2016. As of Monday, the public backed Wagner (-3.5), Colorado State (-2.5), Montana State (-3.5) and Colorado (-2.5).
First Four teams that make the Round of 64 have had moderate success since the format began. A team has advanced to the Round of 32 in 11 of 12 years, including five tournaments in which a play-in team reached the Sweet 16.
There are notable trends to know about the winners once they advance to the Round of 64. Nine of the 11 teams that have won their next game were 11-seeds. Nine of those winners came against a team that earned an at-large bid, while eight of them entered the tournament as a top-50 team in RPI. Low-scoring games have been pivotal to their success, too, with 10 of them occurring when the total went under.
