When filling out brackets and betting games aren't enough, gamblers turn to prop bets. The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas is offering a variety of proposition wagers for March Madness, from which conference will win the national championship to Kansas’ odds of reaching the Sweet 16.
Using the Bracket Simulator, we’ve crunched the numbers to find value in these NCAA Tournament prop bets.
Will a 1-seed win the tournament?
- Yes -150
- No +130
Since the tournament expanded in 1985, 20 of the 34 (58.8%) champions have been 1-seeds, and a top seed has cut down the nets in nine of the past 12 (75.0%) tournaments.
Combined, Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga and North Carolina win the 2019 NCAA Tournament 66.4% of the time. At -150 odds, the implied probability of a 1-seed winning it all is 60.0%. Based on the difference in projected chance and implied probability, there is value betting “Yes.”
Total 1-seeds to reach the Final Four?
- Over 1.5: -180
- Under 1.5: +150
On average, there have been 1.65 1-seeds in the Final Four since 1985. According to our model, the probability of two or more 1-seeds reaching the Final Four is 69.7%. The implied probability at -180 odds is 64.3%.
History and math point to betting the over 1.5.
Will a 2-seed win the tournament?
- Yes +300
- No -400
Kentucky is the most likely 2-seed to be left standing with a 9.1% chance of winning March Madness. Michigan State has a 6.8% chance, Tennessee 4.7% and Michigan 4.6% of being crowned champions. Combined there is a 25.2% chance a 2-seed comes out on top.
Bettors are getting even money betting “Yes” +300, the implied probability is 25.0%.
Total 2-seeds to reach the Final Four?
- Over 1: +280
- Under 1: -360
Since 1985, almost one 2-seed, 0.82 to be exact, reaches the Final Four each tournament. By our numbers, there is a 72.1% chance of at least one 2-seed reaching the Final Four.
We have 2-seed Kentucky as the most likely team to win the Midwest. Michigan State, Tennessee and Michigan all have better than a 20% chance of going to Minneapolis. The simulations like over 1.
Will a power conference win the national championship?
The Westgate is offering odds on each Power Conference to win the title, except the Pac-12 (ouch!). Bettors are getting even-money wagering on the ACC to cut down the nets with Duke (28.8%), Virginia (14.1%) and North Carolina (9.1%) being three of the five most likely champs.
The best value bet is wagering on the Big Ten to not win it all. At -450 odds the implied probability is 81.8%. There is an 85.6% chance a Big Ten team will not take the title.
Which teams will make or miss the Sweet 16?
Based on the difference in projected chance and implied probability, these are the best teams to bet to make or miss the Sweet 16:
- Purdue: Make -130
- Texas Tech: Make -180
- Kansas: Make +170
- Villanova: Miss -200
