When you look back at the Virginia-Purdue boxscore one day, you won't understand a thing. You especially won't understand how the Cavaliers covered as 4.5-point favorite.
UVA pulled out an 80-75 win to advance to the Final Four after tying the game as time expired in regulation. It needed a Carsen Edwards miss and turnover, and four straight free throws, to cover in overtime.
According to the win probability metric in The Action Network app, Purdue had a 97.95% chance to cover with 17 seconds left in regulation.
With 4 minutes left in the second half and through almost all of overtime, the Boilermakers had at least a 70% chance to cover +4.5.
But overtime did them in. Virginia trailed 75-74 with 27 seconds left in OT, then took the lead on a D'Andre Hunter layup. Purdue's Edwards — who scored 42 points — missed a 3, and Kyle Guy made a pair of free throws with 6 seconds after that.
Edwards then threw an errant pass with Purdue down 78-75 and Virginia got the ball back with just under 2 seconds left, then hit both free throws to win 80-75.
According to our Bet Labs data, NCAA Tournament underdogs of 4.5 points or more are 29-6-2 (82.9%) ATS in OT over the last 20 years. St. Joe’s, back in 2014, was last team +4.5 or higher not to cover in OT in the tourney.
Betting tickets on the game were split almost exactly 50-50 (Purdue 51%, Virginia 49%), with 61% of the money on the Cavaliers.
Virginia improved to 2-2 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament, but its two ATS wins have come by a combined one point.
