The Washington Huskies take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, MI. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Michigan is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1350. The total is set at 154 points.
Here are my Washington vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for January 12, 2025.
Washington vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -14 (Play to -16)
My Washington vs Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Washington vs Michigan Odds
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -105 | 154 -110 / -110 | +800 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -115 | 154 -110 / -110 | -1350 |
- Washington vs Michigan spread: Michigan -14
- Washington vs Michigan over/under: 154 points
- Washington vs Michigan moneyline: Michigan -1350, Washington +800
- Washington vs Michigan best bet: Michigan -14 (Play to -16)
Spread
I'm laying the big number with Michigan, as I surprisingly make the number much higher than 14.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Michigan -14 (Play to -16)
Washington vs Michigan College Basketball Betting Preview
Is Washington broken?
The roster was poorly built. While Great Osobor is a monster interior presence, the guard play is inadequate and there’s not enough shooting to properly space the floor for the big man to work underneath.
Washington attempts to play almost exclusively through the post and at the rim, but defenders sag toward the interior and clog up all the lanes.
As a result, Washington ranks last in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency, last in 3-point shooting (26%) and second-to-last in 2-point shooting (48%).
I’d be surprised if the Huskies continue to shoot this poorly for the remainder of the year, but considering how poorly they're running the offense, I don’t know how much positive regression is in store.
On the other end of the court, Washington has been running drop coverage with Osobor at the five, so the Huskies have been tremendous at denying catch-and-shoot opportunities — dropping your interior defender allows you to overplay shooters on the perimeter and wings, instead funneling middle-of-the-floor on-ball creation.
Unfortunately, the perimeter defenders can’t stop the dribble, so the Huskies’ ball-screen coverage has been shredded (.82 PPP allowed, 27th percentile).
Plus, the loss of stellar rim protector Franck Kepnang (undisclosed injury with no timetable for recovery) has significantly hurt the interior defense, so Washington is funneling everyone toward the paint without much deterrent (59% 2-point shooting allowed, second-to-last in Big Ten; 34 paint points per game allowed, 33rd percentile).
Meanwhile, Michigan is flying high, sitting 4-0 in Big Ten play while leading the nation in effective field goal percentage (60%). Nobody can stop the Danny Wolf-Vladislav Goldin four-five ball screens, and the Wolverines space the floor excellently around the duo.
Given Washington’s lazy drop-coverage defense will invite Michigan’s ball-screen creation and do almost nothing to deter Wolf and Goldin at the rim, I don’t feel great about the Huskies getting many stops on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Huskies’ rim-reliant attack might have a tough time against Michigan’s elite rim defense. The Wolverines allow just 23 at-the-rim points per game, the 53rd-fewest nationally.
Hope isn’t entirely lost for Washington. The Huskies are rock-solid in transition and catch-and-shoot denial, which will help slow Michigan’s up-tempo attack and keep the Wolverines from overwhelming them with triples.
If Washington can turn this game into a half-court, interior-based grinder, the Huskies could limit the possessions and variance enough to keep this game within the number.
Additionally, the situational spot screams Washington, as the Huskies could bounce back off back-to-back losses against KenPom top-15 teams.
At the same time, Michigan is due for a loss after back-to-back West Coast wins over USC and UCLA.
However, I thought many of these same points applied to Washington’s game against Michigan State, and the Huskies were promptly blown out, losing by 34 in East Lansing.
I was also surprised that the analytical projections on Michigan were much higher than I expected. EvanMiya, Bart Torvik, Haslametrics and our Action PRO Model all project Michigan as closer to a 20-point favorite than a 14-point one.
I suppose Roddy Gayle Jr.’s injury could have something to do with that, as he missed the last game with an undisclosed injury and is questionable for Sunday’s tilt.
But I don’t think he’s worth enough to the spread to get me off the Wolverines.
