College football Week 13 is officially upon us. Now, let's take a look at our top moneyline underdog plays for Saturday, Nov. 23.
Just like we do on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Last week, Collin hit Air Force, which came through with a dominant 28-0 win over Oregon State. Meanwhile, Old Dominion came up just short against James Madison in a 3-point loss.
Either way, it's on to Week 12.
This week, Collin's heading to the ACC, where he's taking Duke to topple Virginia Tech. I'm taking Kansas to keep its hot streak going against Colorado at Arrowhead Stadium.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out right around 4-1.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 13.
- 2018-23: 72-114, +12.65 units
- 2024-25: 11-13, +2.73 units
College Football Moneyline Underdogs for Week 13
Stuckey: Kansas ML +125 vs. Colorado
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
I've been all in on the Kansas bandwagon for weeks now, and I'm not hopping off now. This is more of a numbers play since I have these two teams power-rated very close to each other.
Both should obviously have plenty of motivation.
Colorado now controls its own destiny for a spot in the Big 12 playoff (and subsequently the College Football Playoff), while Kansas is looking to make an improbable run to bowl eligibility after starting out 1-5 due to the worst close-game luck in the country.
This is also a decent matchup for the Jayhawks.
On defense, they really struggle against opposing rush attacks, ranking in the bottom 20 nationally in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush. However, that shouldn't hurt them too much against a pass-happy Colorado team that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per Rush. In fact, only six teams have a higher pass rate than the Buffaloes in 2024.
Colorado's overwhelming strength lies with quarterback Shedeur Sanders and a bevy of explosive wide receiver options on the outside.
Well, that plays right into the teeth of the Kansas defense, which features the outstanding cornerback duo of Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant, who have combined for nine interceptions on the season while allowing only four total touchdowns.
Colorado will still make some plays, but at the bare minimum, having Dotson and Bryant certainly helps match up with this scary Colorado wide receiver corps.
Even if Colorado is locked in offensively from start to finish, there's no reason why Kansas can't match scores. Since coming out of the bye week, the Jayhawks have had one of the nation's top offenses.
A now 100% healthy Jalon Daniels has cut out the mistakes and has full control of a group that can beat opponents on the ground or through the air. His legs, in particular, should give this Colorado defense fits.
The bottom line is Kansas' offensive ceiling can match Colorado's ceiling if this turns into a shootout. In that case, I'd be happy to have the field goal with the home team (although with a diminished home-field advantage) and better coach/special teams.
Give me Rock Chalk again.
Collin Wilson: Duke +128 vs. Virginia Tech
| VA Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -124 | 47.5 -108o / -113u | -157 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 47.5 -108o / -113u | +128 |
I don't know what's going on with Virginia Tech here.
Quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten are still listed as questionable. The reason that could raise a red flag is because the Hokies are coming off a bye week. It's possible they're saving two of their best players for an in-state game against a rival in Virginia next week that could propel them to bowl eligibility.
I don't know why they would do that, especially because both played last time out against Clemson. However, they were both ineffective.
Drones completed just 9-of-20 passes for 115 yards and an interception while adding just 13 yards on 11 carries. Tuten, meanwhile, carried the ball four times for a grand total of zero yards.
I don't know where the Hokies are offensively.
Plus, there's a huge Havoc discrepancy in this game. Virginia Tech comes in at second nationally in Havoc on the defensive side of the ball, while Duke sits 111th in Havoc allowed.
The Blue Devils also have a huge advantage when it comes to third-down defense, ranking 10th in that area.
On the other side, Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy will be well-protected with a top-25 rank in pass blocking. He's going to need that because Virginia Tech's only strength on defense is its pass rush.
I just don't know what's going on with the Hokies, so give me the Blue Devils.
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