Oklahoma vs. Kansas Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-38.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+38.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
Oklahoma heads to Lawrence as massive favorites looking to keep its undefeated season alive when it takes on Kansas.
With Caleb Williams under center, Oklahoma looks like it has found new life offensively. The five-star freshman electrified the Norman crowd last Saturday night, with over 300 all-purpose yards and five passing touchdowns against TCU.
Williams will have another chance to put up big numbers on Saturday as he goes on the road to take on Kansas.
The Jayhawks are once again in the basement of the Big 12, losing five straight games, including a 41-14 loss against Texas Tech last weekend.
Oklahoma has won 16 straight games over the Jayhawks and it's hard to see how it won't get No. 17 in Lawrence.
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Offense
Williams has completely revitalized the Oklahoma offense since taking over for Spencer Rattler.
Last weekend against TCU, the Sooners gained 7.89 yards per play and Williams himself averaged 11.8 yards per attempt and put up a 94.7 passing grade, per PFF.
With Williams' dual-threat ability, Lincoln Riley can now run more of the Kyler Murray offense from a few years ago. That adds another dynamic to the Sooners' offense, considering Williams is averaging 11.9 yards per rush this season.
That cut by Caleb Williams on his 41-yard TD run. 😱#OUDNA x @CALEBcswpic.twitter.com/azpaA2safF
— Sooner Gridiron (@soonergridiron) October 17, 2021
Oklahoma is going to have the most success in this game on the ground,
Kennedy Brooks has been incredible this season averaging 6.9 yards per rush and has the Sooners ranking 23rd nationally in Rushing Success Rate.
It helps when you're running behind one of the best offensive lines in college football, as Oklahoma is top 12 in terms of both run blocking and pass blocking grade, per PFF.
They should be able to run all over one of the worst front sevens in college football.
Oklahoma Defense
The Sooners' defense won't get exposed this weekend, but they're having a lot of problems right now.
Max Duggan just torched their secondary last Saturday night for 11.5 yards per attempt and four touchdowns, which isn't anything new for a Sooners secondary that is allowing 8.7 yards per attempt, is 124th in EPA/Pass allowed and is graded as the 82nd-best unit in terms of coverage, per PFF.
That means even Kansas may be able to throw the ball on their secondary.
The front seven has been pretty good for the Sooners, as they're only allowing 3.6 yards per carry. They're 27th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 12th in defensive Line Yards.
Kansas has run the ball better than in years past, as its averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has a 0.04 EPA/Rush, which is 67th in the country.
Oklahoma's defense could have some issues covering a 38.5 spread in Lawrence.
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas Offense
Kansas' offense has been better than in year's past. The Jayhawks are gaining 5.3 yards per play and rank 78th in EPA/Play.
The passing game has not been good from a Success Rate standpoint and quarterback Jason Bean is only averaging 6.7 yards per attempt.
However, they've actually had some success through the air in terms of big plays.
The Jayhawks are 13th in the country in explosive passing and they're going up against a Sooners' secondary that is 115th in explosive passing allowed. The Jayhawks could move the ball on Oklahoma, especially if this game gets out of hand in the first half and they're facing the backups in the second half.
They've also been much better running the ball because their offensive line has improved. Kansas ranks 79th in offensive Line Yards.
However, like I already mentioned, the Jayhawks are likely going to struggle against Oklahoma's stout front seven, so a lot of their success is going to have come through the air.
Kansas Defense
It's once again been really bad for the Kansas defense. They are one of the worst teams in college football against the pass, ranking dead last in Passing Success Rate Allowed, dead last in EPA/Pass allowed and 118th in coverage, per PFF.
Williams is most likely going to put up video game-type numbers on Saturday.
The front seven isn't much better, Kansas is allowing 6.3 yards per attempt, ranks 127th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 126th in EPA/Rush allowed.
It's hard to see how the Jayhawks are going to hold Oklahoma under 55 points on Saturday unless Lincoln Riley takes his foot off the gas.
Oklahoma vs. Kansas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma and Kansas match up statistically:
Oklahoma Offense vs. Kansas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 127 | |
| Line Yards | 64 | 130 | |
| Pass Success | 12 | 130 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 4 | 112 | |
| Big Play | 7 | 128 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 129 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Kansas Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 99 | 27 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 60 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 114 | 5 | |
| Big Play | 101 | 91 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 69 | |
| Finishing Drives | 113 | 82 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 67 | 68 |
| Coverage | 82 | 118 |
| Middle 8 | 10 | 62 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 6 | 113 |
| Plays per Minute | 85 | 108 |
| Rush Rate | 50.5% (90) | 59.5% (38) |
Oklahoma vs. Kansas Betting Pick
Oklahoma is the biggest favorite on the board on Saturday, but given how bad its secondary has been, it's hard to get behind it winning by more than five touchdowns on the road.
Given Kansas' success with big plays in the passing game and Oklahoma's big-time struggles in the secondary, I think Kansas is going to score more than people think.
I have Kansas projected for 17.75 points on Saturday, so I think there's some value on the team total over 14 points.
