UTSA vs. Louisiana Tech Odds
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 60 -105o / -115u | -255 |
| Louisiana Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 60 -105o / -115u | +205 |
This game is a Conference USA matchup between one of the under-the-radar undefeated teams and a four-loss team.
UTSA enters this game following a 45-0 win over Rice. Louisiana Tech comes into this game after a 19-3 loss to UTEP.
UTSA enters play on Saturday as a ranked, 7-0 team that already holds three wins over conference opponents. UTEP is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) and has gone under in all but two of its games this season.
Louisiana Tech is 2-4 with a 1-1 record inside the conference. The Bulldogs are 3-3 ATS and have gone over in four of six games.
UTSA Roadrunners
UTSA Offense
UTSA is averaging 38.6 points per game, which ranks 18th in the nation. The Roadrunners have an overall Success Rate of 46% and average 5.9 yards per play.
Despite the fact that they run the ball 56.5% of the time, they've maintained a below-average 24.9 seconds per play pace. They score 4.33 points per opportunity and have only allowed Havoc on 12% of plays.
Frank Harris leads the Roadrunners offense with 1600 passing yards. He's completing 69.2% of his passes at an average of 8.0 yards per attempt. He's thrown for 14 touchdowns and just three interceptions and has added some rushing with 211 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
UTSA has a Passing Success Rate of 49.8% and averages 3.7 passes over 20 yards per game.
While Harris leads the offense, Sincere McCormick largely carries the offense at running back. He's averaging 24 carries per game and has turned them into 778 rushing yards and six touchdowns.
The team has a Rushing Success Rate of 43.3%. The offensive line has generated 3.36 Line Yards per attempt and has only allowed a stuff rate of 11.3%.
UTSA Defense
Through seven games, UTSA has allowed 5.1 yards per play and 19.1 points per game, including two shut-out wins. The Roadrunners have allowed a 40.1 Success Rate and an average of 3.74 points per opportunity.
One key to their success has been their 19.8% Havoc rate.
Thus far, the UTSA defense has faced a near 50/50 split of rushing and passing plays. They are allowing 81.6 rushing yards per game at an average of 2.6 yards per rush.
They've allowed a 39.1% Rushing Success Rate and have only allowed three 10+ yards rushes per game. They haven't allowed a single 20+ yard run this season.
UTSA's defensive struggles have come against the pass. The Roadrunners are allowing 242 passing yards per game. Opposing QBs have completed 57.3% of their passes at a 7.53 yards per attempt average.
They allow a 41% Passing Success Rate and allow four 20+ yard passes per game. They've defended 23 pass attempts, but have only forced six interceptions.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Louisiana Tech Offense
Louisiana Tech is averaging 28.3 points per game and 5.8 yards per play. The Bulldogs average 67.7 offensive plays per game and have averaged 24.7 seconds per play.
They have a 40% overall Success Rate and have scored 3.49 points per opportunity. They've allowed Havoc at a 14.5% rate.
Austin Kendall has completed 58.9% of his passes at an average of 7.7 yards per attempt. He's thrown for over 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he's also thrown eight interceptions. Louisiana Tech has a 45.5% Passing Success Rate and has averaged 3.8 20+ yard passes per game.
The Bulldogs run the ball 33.2 times per game and have averaged 3.7 yards per rush attempt. As a team, they have just a 34.2% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line has only generated 2.6 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 22.4% stuff rate.
Louisiana Tech Defense
Louisiana Tech is allowing 31 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, which ranks 99th and 93th in the nation, respectively. They've allowed a 47.7% overall Success Rate and allow 4.23 points per opportunity.
One factor in their struggles is their 11.4% Havoc rate generated.
The Bulldogs have allowed 314.3 passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 68.4% of their passes at an average of 7.36 yards per attempt.
They've allowed a 48.5% Passing Success Rate and 3.83 20+ passing yards per game. They've defended 17 passes and have only forced four interceptions.
The run defense has been only slightly better. They're allowing 4.1 yards per rush and 143 rushing yards per game. They've allowed a 46.6% Rushing Success Rate.
Their defensive line has allowed opposing lines to generate 3.35 Line Yards per attempt and they've only forced a 14.7% Stuff Rate.
UTSA vs. Louisiana Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTSA and Louisiana Tech match up statistically:
UTSA Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 102 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 118 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 87 | 95 | |
| Big Play | 63 | 119 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 119 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 105 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. UTSA Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 123 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 118 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 63 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 120 | 14 | |
| Big Play | 21 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 20 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 66 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 73 | 24 |
| Coverage | 81 | 34 |
| Middle 8 | 12 | 120 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 34 | 99 |
| Plays per Minute | 38 | 35 |
| Rush Rate | 56.5% (53) | 49.4% (100) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
The best unit in this game appears to be the Roadrunners' offense although their defense also holds a significant advantage over the Bulldogs' offense.
UTSA vs. Louisiana Tech Betting Pick
Both sharp and big money bets have come in on the Bulldogs to cover a 6.5-point spread. This is shown by the fact that while 66% of tickets have come in on UTSA, 86% of the money is on the underdog.
I tend to disagree with the sharp plays and favor the Roadrunners, but I prefer a play to the total in this game.
With the best unit being a UTSA offense that runs the ball more than 40 times per game, I'm expecting the clock to stay running and this game to end with an under.
