Week 6 of the college football season is here, and the midway point of the year is fast approaching. By now, we have plenty of data points on each team.
This week, I have identified four moneyline underdogs that are worth considering to pull the upset, and depending on your risk tolerance, playing in a round robin or a parlay.
While I've had some success with long-shot parlays in the past (including a big win last week!), a round-robin can also be an effective way of betting underdogs.
Last week, this article hit three out of our four legs, paying out the 3s in our round-robin at +942 odds. Let's do it again!
Each week, I'll be back with a long-shot parlay/round robin that will hopefully turn out some profit.
Some weeks will have just a handful of games involved, while there may be more legs in other weeks. And remember, this is an extreme long shot for a reason — please bet responsibly.
Read on for my Week 6 college football round robin and parlay.
College Football Round Robin & Parlay Odds
- By 2's: +850
- By 3's: +2762
- 4-Leg Parlay: +8343
SGP Pick #1: Stanford ML +260 vs. Virginia Tech
This one could get ugly. Neither offense has been decent this season, with both Stanford and Virginia Tech ranking outside the top 50 in both Rush Success and Pass Success on the year.
Stanford's best win came against a Syracuse team that has shown some potent scoreability, and we at least know that Ashton Daniels and Elic Ayomanor have the chemistry to take over a football game.
Virginia Tech impressed the college football world last week, taking Miami to the wire in a game where it led often. If not for a reversed touchdown at the buzzer, the Hokies would have come away with a marquee victory.
But that makes this a letdown spot, and it's a buy-low for Stanford as well, coming off its first truly bad performance against a loaded Clemson squad.
The best unit for either team here is Stanford's seventh-ranked run defense, which should stifle a Virginia Tech team that's dependent on establishing the run to win games. Take the Cardinal to win outright.
SGP Pick #2: South Carolina ML +260 vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss did not look like itself last week in a three-point loss to Kentucky.
The Rebels offense never got going, finishing with just 17 points while going scoreless in both the second and fourth quarters.
Kentucky was patient, running the ball 47 times (for just 93 yards) and dominating the time of possession, holding the ball at nearly a 2:1 rate.
That's a formula South Carolina can replicate, as leaning heavily into a ground attack is what secured the Gamecocks a dominant 31-6 win over the same Kentucky team that just knocked off Ole Miss.
It has been hard to evaluate this Gamecocks team since then, as they have been dealing with injuries to quarterback LaNorris Sellers and running back Raheim Sanders in recent weeks.
But the bottom line is this: South Carolina was rolling and leading LSU when Sellers went down, and it has been a very successful team when its starting QB is healthy.
With both Sellers and Morris slated to return this week, the value is on the Gamecocks here.
SGP Pick #3: Minnesota ML +250 vs. USC
Minnesota's third-ranked pass defense will look to lock down a USC offense that needs Miller Moss to lead it through the air against quality opponents.
The Golden Gophers appeared to flip a switch at halftime against Michigan last week, outscoring the Wolverines, 21-6, in the second half at the Big House, en route to a 27-24 loss.
That's the same exact score that Michigan beat USC by a week earlier.
The former Pac-12 schools have struggled when traveling east this year. USC lost at Michigan, Washington lost at Rutgers, and UCLA lost at LSU. None of the West Coast Big Ten newbies have won a game on the road in this conference yet.
That will change at some point, but given Minnesota's success against the pass this year, it will have a chance to stifle Moss and escape with the win.
SGP Pick #4: Florida ML +120 vs. UCF
Two teams trending in opposite directions will face off in the Swamp here, as UCF looks to bounce back from its bewildering loss at the hands of Colorado in Week 5.
After picking off Shedeur Sanders on the first drive, the UCF defense allowed scoring drives on six of Colorado's next seven possessions.
The Knights had no answers from start to finish, giving up 418 yards total en route to 48 points allowed.
A week before, UCF barely escaped TCU — the same TCU team that lost 66-42 to SMU — with a 35-34 win.
The Golden Knights are vulnerable right now, and Florida can take advantage. Veteran quarterback Graham Mertz was flawless in its 45-28 win over Mississippi State last week, completing 19 of his 21 pass attempts for 201 yards and three touchdowns.
Mertz will be able to find success again through the air, as the UCF defense ranks just 124th nationally against the pass and is the worst unit on either side in this game.
Back Mertz and the home Gators to make enough plays to secure the win.
