It's not much of a secret that weather can affect the outcome of a football game. And as such, it shouldn't come as a surprise that oddsmakers often shift lines on account of game conditions.
However, what might not be as well known is just how much weather — and in particular, wind — matters. Thankfully, we have a database that can tell us exactly that.
Since 2005, college football games played in winds of 13+ mph have hit the under at a 56.6% rate on a sample of more than 1,000 games (552-424-34).
And while it diminishes the sample, bumping the threshold up to 17+ mph, accordingly, increases the win rate to 59.1%. Pushing up to 20+ mph games returns a 64.5% clip.
And considering those are win rates that would make any professional bettor happy, you might be curious as to which of Saturday's games fit the bill. So, let's take a look:
College Football Windy Weather Forecasts
Odds, forecasts as of 11 a.m. ET.
Michigan State vs. Iowa
12 p.m. ET | ESPN | Iowa City, Iowa
- Projected wind speeds: 9 to 16 mph
- O/U open to current: 46.5 to 46.5
Troy vs. Georgia Southern
1 p.m. ET | ESPN3 | Statesboro, Ga.
- Projected wind speeds: 13 to 14 mph
- O/U open to current: 52 to 52.5
Florida vs. Georgia
3:30 p.m. ET | CBS | Jacksonville, Fla.
- Projected wind speeds: 12 to 14 mph
- O/U open to current: 54 to 54.5
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
4 p.m. ET | FOX | Manhattan, Kan.
- Projected wind speeds: 18 to 22 mph
- O/U open to current: 51 to 47.5
Western Kentucky vs. Florida Atlantic
6 p.m. ET | STADIUM | Boca Raton, Fla.
- Projected wind speeds: 22 to 23 mph
- O/U open to current: 41 to 38.5
Baylor vs. Iowa State
7 p.m. ET | FS1 | Ames, Iowa
- Projected wind speeds: 17 to 18 mph
- O/U open to current: 53 to 47
New Mexico vs. Hawaii
11 p.m. ET | Spectrum | Honolulu, Hawaii
- Projected wind speeds: 13 mph
- O/U open to current: 59.5 to 64.5
