For the biggest college football game of the season, I have two player props.
With the NFL down to three games, I've turned by attention to Notre Dame vs. Ohio State player props. My two picks can also be played at PrizePicks, which you can play using the quickslip at the bottom of the post.
Let's get into my Monday Night Football (kind of) player props for the College Football National Championship.
Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Player Props
I'm on two unders for Notre Dame–Ohio State. One is based on the likely game script, and the other is fading a player's specific workload instead of his production.
Jadarian Price Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
This is a number that Price typically clears, having gone over it in 11 of 15 (73%) games this season. However, he has a couple of things going against him tonight.
Notre Dame has lost just one game this season, which means it has played in leading, run-heavy game scripts in most games. That probably won't be the case tonight as 8.5-point underdogs against Ohio State.
If the Irish are trailing and not playing with a lead, it might also lead to pass-catching RB Aneyas Williams seeing more playing time than usual (at the expense of Price).
Price has also struggled in the last three games, which have been against solid run defenses. He has only averaged 2.9 yards per carry over the last three games, and Ohio State will be his toughest matchup yet.
I’m projecting Price's yards per carry to be closer to 4.3 and his total median closer to 21.5 rushing yards with a 60% chance he stays below 25.5.
| Rush Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 22.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 23.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 24.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 25.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 26.5 | 36% | 64% |
TreVeyon Henderson Under 2.5 Receptions (-115)
I'm showing slight value on Under 19.5 receiving yards for Henderson, but that's not a market I'm interested in fading him in. Henderson took a checkdown for 75 yards in the final seconds of the first half last week, so we'll bet against his volume instead of his production.
That 75-yard catch was Henderson's only catch of the game. He could have an explosive catch or two in this game, but 2.5 receptions isn't a total he typically goes over.
I'm projecting Henderson to run a route on 19 of QB Will Howard's dropbacks. He has only seen a target on 12.6% of routes run this season.
I have Henderson's most likely outcome as getting two targets, and that would be an easy win on this prop. Even if he does get three targets, he has a 90% catch rate but it wouldn't be a lock that he'd catch all three. We probably shouldn't expect him to maintain a catch rate that high against a defense like Notre Dame.
The end result of my simulation has Henderson staying under 2.5 receptions 62% of the time.
| Receptions | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 94% |
| 5.5 | 2% | 98% |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% |
