Orange Bowl Picks, Parlay for Notre Dame vs. Penn State
- Notre Dame -1.5
- Over 44.5
- Nick Singleton 60+ Rushing Yards
Parlay Odds: +475 (BetMGM)
The College Football Playoff semifinals take place in the Orange Bowl, where the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2) take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1). Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
Penn State had itself a convincing win against Mountain West champion Boise State by a score of 31-14. What an impressive year it was led by Drew Allar and Tyler Warren, both potential first round picks in the NFL Draft.
Notre Dame stomped through Georgia in the Sugar Bowl with a 23-10 victory. There wasn’t a whole lot of aerial offense, as quarterback Riley Leonard threw for only 90 yards but ran for 80.
Let’s dive into our Orange Bowl picks, predictions and same-game parlay for Notre Dame vs. Penn State in the CFP semifinals on Thursday, Jan. 9.
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Orange Bowl Odds for Notre Dame vs. Penn State
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
Game Line Spread Pick: Notre Dame -1.5
I’ve been riding Penn State for a while now, but this ends our glorious chapter together.
It’s unfortunate because I genuinely like this team, and it's nice to see that James Franklin has finally escaped the fraud allegations. This is an exceptional program, but the Fiesta Bowl showcased a number of the Nittany Lions’ weaknesses.
Allar has put together a remarkable resume that should make him look mighty attractive come the NFL Draft. With a 67% completion rate, an elite touchdown-to-interception ratio and a cannon for an arm, there’s a lot to like.
I was alarmed at how he reacted to Boise State’s pressure though. Admittedly, I thought there was going to be a lot less pressure allowed from Penn State’s offensive line, but Boise attacked the junior at will and racked up four sacks.
Notre Dame has a bunch of dogs on the defensive line, including Rylie Mills and Donovan Hinish, who have combined for 11 sacks. While Mills is out for the season, the Fighting Irish still have Howard Cross III and Junior Tuihalamaka, who have been tackling fiends all season.
Additionally, you have to wonder about Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter, a surefire top-10 draft pick this spring, who’s been dealing with a shoulder injury he suffered in the Fiesta Bowl. Penn State is saying all the right things, but in the end, he was listed as a “game-time decision.”
You can read into that however you want. I’m feeling bearish on Penn State’s No. 1 difference-maker on defense.
Over/Under Pick: Over 44.5
This number keeps dropping.
When lines opened up, the total was listed at 46.5, and now we’re firmly at 44.5. I usually like betting unders for these programs since it hits for Penn State 60% of the time and 50% for Notre Dame.
Either 44.5 is a trap, or the books are legitimately expecting this to be a chess match. I’ll take the bait, though. At heart, both programs are among the top 20 in scoring offense, with Notre Dame ranking third with 37 points per game.
I’ve always been a fan of Leonard dating back to his Duke days and his ability to leave defenses guessing. If he has no looks, through the air, he’ll slice you with his legs — as shown against Georgia.
Player Rushing Yards Prop: Nick Singleton 60+ Rushing Yards
With Allar potentially riding the struggle bus in this bout, I think the Lions turn to their run game.
Nick Singleton has played the majority of the season injured, but now he’s raking up the yards. In his past five games, Singleton has run for 86 yards per carry and six total touchdowns.
There’s been more of an emphasis to get the junior running back involved, and if there’s going to be more pressure on Allar, I expect Singleton to play a big role.
Notre Dame has also allowed 127 rushing yards per game all season, and while it stifled Indiana and Georgia’s run game, I think Singleton is miles better than any backs those programs have rolled out.
History tells us that he’ll probably generate at least 75 yards, but to cover myself — and for the sake of the SGP — we’re going safe with it.
