You've probably heard the saying before, "Sharps bet numbers, not teams." If you haven't, allow Friday night's Pitt vs. Syracuse matchup to serve as the epitome of that statement.
In addition to that game, wiseguys have also made their way to the total on tonight's final clash: UNLV vs. Fresno State.
Let's take a look at how the pros are betting each one.
Odds as of Friday at 11:15 a.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
7 p.m. ET | ESPN
For the most part, this spread opened right at Pittsburgh -3 — an obviously important number given the frequency of field-goal margins. Sixty percent of bettors, generating 56% of money, have laid the points with the Panthers, and Sports Insights Bet Signals — indicators of sharp action moving lines — have revealed pros to be among that majority.
Four steam moves have hit Pittsburgh since this line opened, sending oddsmakers to the currently listed number of -3.5. What's important to note about those signals, though, is that all four came at a spread of -3.
Considering the difference in value between -3 and -3.5, it wouldn't be accurate to suggest that sharps are hitting Pitt at anything above a field goal, at least not until we see additional line movement.
12 p.m. ET update:
It clearly didn't take long for that additional line movement to come Friday, as sharps triggered a fifth Bet Signal on Pittsburgh around 11:40 a.m. ET, confirming that wiseguys out there are still finding value beyond -3.
This move came at -3.5 and sent the market-wide consensus up to -4.
Sharp angle: Pitt (moved from -3 to -4)
UNLV vs. Fresno State
10 p.m. ET
As was the case in the above game, sharps and squares don't always disagree. This total is another example of that.
Once again, 60% of bets have hit the under. In this case, those bets have generated nearly all of the money being wagered (94%), serving as the first indication of sharp action, as pros are more likely to be the ones making bigger bets.
Two SI Bet Signals have confirmed the professional action, hitting the under at 55 and 54 and sending the number down to 53, and even 52.5 at a few shops.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 55 to 53)
