Everyone is discussing Scott Frost's decision-making in the Nebraska Cornhuskers' disastrous loss in Ireland, and with good reason. But don't overlook what happened on the other side on Saturday, especially if you're a bettor.
In defeating Nebraska 31-28 in the season opener across the pond, Northwestern Wildcats coach Pat Fitzgerald has cemented himself as a stone-cold favorite killer.
Pat Fitzgerald, The Ultimate Winning Underdog
Since taking over as head coach in 2006, Fitzgerald's Wildcats have been underdogs in 107 games. The Wildcats have won 40 of those games — the most wins as an underdog of any coach in college football.
So what does that mean for Northwestern backers? A $100 bettor would be up $4,323 if they bet on the Northwestern moneyline in every game where the Wildcats have been an underdog under Fitzgerald, for a stunning 40.4% return on investment.
In fact, while Northwestern closed as a 12.5-point underdog at most sportsbooks on Saturday morning, you might as well forget the points if you're betting on the Wildcats.
Stunningly, a $100 bettor betting the Northwestern moneyline in every game under Fitzgerald (as a favorite or dog) would be up $4,419, as Northwestern is 104-89 straight-up under Fitzgerald, with a 22.9% ROI. That is the third-highest ROI among coaches on the moneyline since 2005, behind Matt Campbell and Turner Gill.
Fitzgerald also pulled off his eighth upset as a double-digit underdog over the last decade on Saturday to move into a tie with Louisiana-Monroe head coach Terry Bowden for the most double-digit upsets in that span.
Scott Frost's Historically Bad Record in One-Score Games
On the flip side, Frost continued to prove an inability to close out games as Nebraska fans and moneyline bettors, particularly those with Frost's team in parlays, watched the Huskers lose a close one once again, giving back two double-digit leads.
Frost is now 5-21 since taking over at Nebraska in one-score games. To make matters worse, Frost has fallen to 7-15 ATS as a favorite during his time at Nebraska, the third-worst record as a favorite among coaches since he was hired in 2018. He is also 0-5 ATS in season openers.
Still, as bad as those numbers are, they shouldn't overshadow just how incredible Fitzgerald has been at Northwestern.
