Bengals vs. Ravens Odds & Betting Predictions - November 8, 2024

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I like the value here! Despite being under in 56% of games this season, we get a nice price thanks to having one INT in back to back games entering tonight. Of quarterbacks with at least 240 passing attempts, Burrow ranks 2nd lowest with a 1.0% turnover-worthy throw % this season. Guess who the man he's behind? Lamar Jackson! Meanwhile Lamar sits at -150 to not throw an INT tonight. Yes, Burrow will likely have more total throwing volume, but Lamar has also been throwing a lot lately - over 280 passing yards in his last 5. The Ravens pass defense has been absolutely brutal this season, allowing the most passing yards per game to opposing QB's. The Ravens have only forced 6 interceptions in 9 games this season and Burrow only has one road interception on the season (4 games). Ultimately, I think we are getting a nice price here. A little fun fact - Joe Burrow, since 2020, has not allowed a Thursday Night Football interception (4 games), including one against BAL in 2023. We'll take it here in a must-win game for CIN where Burrow needs to put out an elite performance.

#ProSystem TNF Favs Parlay Piece Overall: 79-18-0,81% (ROI:20%) Season:3-1-0,75% (ROI:14%)

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Analysis breakdown in the @PlaysLab Discord

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Baltimore’s powerful rushing attack, led by Derrick Henry, sets up a slow, clock-controlled game. Cincinnati’s injury-hit offense may struggle against Baltimore’s top pass rush, limiting explosive plays.

Tailing @AGP

Totals of 52+ on Thursday Night Football are 14-5-1 to the under since 2003 via Evan Abrams

Avery

-145 on DK At least 2 field goal attempts in 7 of 9 games

Tailing sharp

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Idk man I said it in the video

-Ja’Marr caught a 41 and 70 yard reception earlier this season vs BAL -BAL has allowed a lot of deep balls to WRs this season: Courtland Sutton 33 Jerry Jeudy 30 Cedric Tillman 38 Mike Evans 25 Ja’Marr Chase 41 & 70 Andre Iosivas 39 Khalil Shakir 52 Keon Coleman 24 Davante Adams 30 Rashee Rice 33 Xavier Worthy 35 CeeDee Lamb 31 -Cincy is also projected to be playing from behind as 6.5 point road underdogs. They already throw the ball at a very high rate + BAL’s run defense is elite so they should air it out in this one

No Isaiah Likely

“He continues to show why I have so much trust in him.” - Joe Burrow Grabbing this now since Tee Higgins hasn’t been ruled out yet, but once he has this line should move. Mike Gesicki should be set for another big day with the Bengals estimating to be without Tee Higgins for a third straight game on Thursday. Gesicki’s breakout game for 100 yards and 2 TDs showcased his ability to step up in his absence. In four games this season without Higgins, Gesicki averages 70.5 receiving yards/game, leads the team with a 25.2% air-yards share and 31.1% of team yards market share, and ranks second with a 23.7% First Read share in these splits - for perspective, that puts him in Brock Bowers territory in terms of full-season usage. He’s essentially a wide receiver when beating CBs in coverage when he’s running his routes, they aren’t really coming from inline - 65.7% are coming from the slot and 23.3% are from out wide according to FantasyPoints. This is perfect for the matchup Baltimore, the biggest pass-funnel defense in the league. Baltimore’s defense is allowing 7.4 yards per attempt (4th), 67.6 yards per games to opposing tight ends (3rd) and 90.0 yards per game (7th) to opposing slot receivers. Opponents are forced to throw, and Gesicki should get even more time on the field with rookie TE Erick All Jr. out for the season. #PlayerProps

Gesicki's production is tied primarily to the health of Tee Higgins. He's been Cincinnati's most productive pass catcher when Higgins has been out. Gesicki has faded into a secondary role when Higgins has been healthy. Higgins hasn't practiced since going down with a quad injury ahead of Week 8. I'd be surprised if he plays here. In 4 games without Higgins, Gesicki has racked up 282 receiving yards on 22 catches and 27 targets. He's 2nd on the team in target share at 19.1%. In 5 games with Higgins, Gesicki has just 71 receiving yards on 8 catches and 9 targets. He's 7th in target share. Baltimore has allowed the 4th-most targets, 5th-most receptions, and the 2nd-most receiving yards per game to tight ends. Cincinnati leads the league in neutral pass rate, so the passing volume should be there.

Bengals should be able to move the ball, but the Ravens' offense should be able to do whatever it wants on offense here.

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