Steelers vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - January 15, 2024

… contrarian spread playoffs Overall: 70-47-3,60% (ROI:16%) Season:2-0-0,100% (ROI:98%)

69 with Dale 20 Days until the NASCAR Busch Light Clash!

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@nick_giffen

Pittsburg is the only 10 win team in NFL history that is worse and luckier than the 2023-24 Eagles. The Bills stormed into the playoffs, the Steelers limped in on luck, I don’t expect this to be close.

Projection: 37.7. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

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@charliedisturco

@SimonHunterNFL

@nick_giffen

@GreenDotDaily

Raybon 3

Executive Decision

#LuckRankings

Bet both Bills D/ST at +500 for 0.3U and Steelers D/ST TD at +1000 for 0.2U. Make sure your book includes special teams and not just defense.

Under in 12/17 (including 6/7 Steelers losses) and the Bills allowed the third fewest rush att per game, mainly due to pace and gamescripts. Pace - since both teams changed OCs, they’ve really slowed down the pace. Both teams rank within as the 12 slowest teams in neutral gamescripts since Week 12 (in terms of seconds per play). Gamescript - Bills are rolling, they should control this one throughout, especially with the Steelers without TJ Watt. Weather could come into play, but it was very evident last week that the Steelers are going to use Najee as their banger. Warren with only 30% of PiTT’s rushing attempts the last three games. And quite honestly, Najee has looked better. We saw Najee get 26 attempts to Warren’s 9 in a gross weather game last week, in a rare game where the Steelers dominated time of possession. I don’t see that happening a the Bills.

My model is well above this total, even when you account for the wind. Current wind projections are at 20 miles per hour. With that assumed, I have the total at 43.2. If you reduced the wind speed to 5 miles per hour, my model has this at 45.8. So I think I'm already moving pretty far with this total -- and I'm still more than 5 points away from the market. There's likely no TJ Watt in this game, which dings the Steelers' defense, and the spread here is large, which correlates with a higher total. I understand why this total is where it's at, given the forecast, but I think it has moved too far down.

#LuckRankings