The first two picks of the 2021 NFL Draft have seemingly been penciled in for months, but the betting market for this year's No. 3 overall pick has been chaotic.
With just two days to go before the draft gets underway, Alabama's Mac Jones currently leads the pack at -305 odds (75.31% implied probability) to have his name called third on Thursday according to DraftKings. North Dakota State's Trey Lance sits at a distant second at +250 odds (28.57%), followed by Ohio State's Justin Fields at +500 (16.67%).
NFL Draft Odds: No. 3 Pick
But it wasn't always this way.
The opening odds for the third pick — which is currently held by the 49ers after trading with the Dolphins on March 26 — had Jones at +150 (40%), Lance at +175 (36.36%) and Fields at +200 (33.33%). Fields and Lance were tied as co-favorites at +150 (40%) on March 30 on the heels of Jones' lackluster Pro Day.
Jones' odds have been mostly trending up since his Pro Day stumbles, however, which has coincided with some negative PR for Fields, whose epilepsy diagnosis was revealed this month. Fields and Jones were co-favorites on April 5 at +125 (44.44%), while Lance slipped to +250 (28.57%). On April 15, Fields passed Jones as the lone betting favorite at -125 (55.6%), while Jones fell to +120 (45.5%) and Lance to +350 (22.2%), but Fields' position atop the board didn't last long.
Fields and Jones were tied at +100 (50%) on April 20, but Jones passed Fields a day later and advanced to -125 (55.56%), while Fields dropped to +125 (44.44%) and Lance remained at +400 (20%).
Fields' odds dropped to their nadir on Sunday at +700 (12.5%) while Jones' shifted to -200 (66.67%) and Lance's moved to +150 (40%) amid reports that the 49ers' choice would come down to the latter two.
Jones' odds have continued to creep up over the last two days and based on what we've seen thus far, bettors should expect more movement in this volatile market in the days to come.
The betting market for first two picks has been comparatively placid, with Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and BYU's Zach Wilson heavily favored (both -10000) to go first and second overall to the Jaguars and Jets, respectively.
