When it comes to Super Bowl MVP, quarterbacks are the most likely to win the award. Over the past 20 Super Bowls, 13 have won the award (65% win rate). When pitting those odds with each team’s current implied win probability, Matthew Stafford's fair odds would be +140 and Joe Burrow's would be +330.
That said, wide receivers have won the award in four of the past 20 years (20% win rate). And considering there are a few elite receivers featured in this game, it makes sense to target one in the MVP market. I’m projecting this spread closer to Rams -3, so I see value on the Bengals to cover +4.5 and their moneyline. Therefore, I’m keying in on Tee Higgins at +6000 odds (via FanDuel) as the top value plays in the Super Bowl MVP market.
Higgins is one of the best up-and-coming wide receivers in the game who is more than capable of posting a big enough line to earn himself Super Bowl MVP.
If the Rams go out of their way to slow down Ja’Marr Chase, it could open the door for Higgins to have a massive game. The Rams use zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (per SportsInfoSolutions), which makes this a plus matchup for Higgins.
Yards Per Route Run Against Man vs. Zone
- Ja'Marr Chase: 3.59 vs. 2.38
- Tee Higgins: 2.12 vs. 2.13
via Pro Football Focus
As you can see, Chase is the clear alpha in the passing attack when facing man coverage. However, against zone, the gap narrows considerably. Tyler Boyd has been held fewer than 40 yards in four straight games and C.J. Uzomah could be more of a decoy as he attempts to play through a sprained MCL.
The path to Higgins having an MVP-like performance is much more likely than his +6000 price tag. I would bet 0.1 unit down to +5000.
