2024 Super Bowl Defensive Props: Interception Bets
In the table below, you'll find each of Nick Giffen's interception prop bets for the 2024 Super Bowl. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific interception bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:30 p.m. | |
| 6:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
49ers vs. Chiefs
Charvarius Ward
Player to Record an Interception (+1000)
FanDuel’s odds for Ward to record an interception (+1000) stand out. Just look at bet365 and ESPN Bet, where he’s listed at +600.
Ward has by far the most passes defended (24) and most passes defended per game (1.26) this year of all defensive players on the 49ers and Chiefs, with L'Jarius Sneed coming in second. In fact, Ward makes up around 12.5% of all passes defended per game among defensive players expected to get significant snaps in the Super Bowl.
His five interceptions on 24 passes defended are only 0.3 INTs above expectation, so he hasn't been particularly lucky in this department.
Ward almost exclusively plays on the left side of the 49ers defense, lining up there on more than 90% of snaps. That's a great fit against Patrick Mahomes, who has recorded 20 of his 69 career interceptions on short passes to his right (which is the 49ers' defensive left side). Mahomes has another 13 interceptions deep to the right, meaning 47.8% of his career interceptions have come on passes to Ward's side.
That's a direct result of more bad balls in that direction, too. Mahomes has 154 bad balls to the right side, which makes up 42.9% of his bad balls.
Considering Ward typically plays on nearly 100% of snaps and Mahomes is around 50-50 to throw an interception, I have this bet projected closer to +750, which is around where the rest of the market is.
Pick: Charvarius Ward Player to Record an Interception (+1000)
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Mike Edwards
Player to Make First Defensive Interception (+3000)
Brock Purdy has struggled throwing the ball to the middle of the field — 41.6% of his career bad balls, and eight of his 16 career interceptions (postseason included), have occurred in this portion of the field.
Breaking it down further, Purdy has 12 bad balls on 41 passes that have traveled 15-plus yards over the middle of the field — he has been picked on five of those bad balls. Purdy's deep-middle bad-ball rate is more than twice the NFL average.
While there should be some regression in interceptions, the bad-ball rate is a more stable number. Just using per-game rates, Purdy's bad balls deep down the middle should account for around 7% of all bad balls over the long run if we were able to replay this game many times over.
That pairs well with Chiefs safety Mike Edwards' pass defended rate, where he should make up around 3% of all passes defended over the long run before we even account for Purdy's tendencies. After accounting for it, I think Edwards should be closer to 20-1 than 30-1 in this market.
FanDuel actually makes Edwards the co-favorite in interception likelihood with 49ers safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. (both are +500 to record a pick), and while I disagree with their odds on both, it is notable that DraftKings has both players tied for the 13th-most likely to be the first player to record an INT.
The truth likely lies in between, especially with Edwards.
