2024 Super Bowl Props: Mitch Wishnowsky, Tommy Townsend, Charvarius Ward
P Mitch Wishnowsky
SF 49ers Longest Punt Over 55.5 (-115)
Wishnowsky has gone over 55.5 yards in 14-of-19 games (73% hit rate). If you’re betting on this, it’s critical to get the number at 55.5 because five of those 14 punts that went over were exactly 56 yards. That also means he’s unlikely to go over at such a high rate considering he’s barely been clearing.
That being said, there are a few reasons to love Wishnowsky’s upside …
Allegiant stadium has boosted punters’ expected average by 2.7% over the last three seasons. For example, a punter with a 47-yard average typically averages 48.3 yards at this venue. While some of that is noise, it does make sense for Allegiant Stadium to be a good place to kick since it’s a dome and Paradise, Nev., is around 2,000 feet above sea level.
Wishnowsky has played two games indoors this season – he has a 60-plus-yard punt in both of them. He’s averaged three punts per game, but he is expected to punt around four times against the Chiefs. Potentially getting that extra punt would be massive – 32% of his punts have cleared 55.5, so getting 3-4 punts should be enough for him to get one over.
I have Wishnowsky’s median longest punt closer to 58.5 yards with around a 62% chance of him punting one at least 56 yards.
This prop can be found in the “Game Props” section at DraftKings.
| Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 53.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 54.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 55.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 56.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 57.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 58.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 59.5 | 46% | 54% |
Pick: SF 49ers Longest Punt Over 55.5 (-115)
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P Tommy Townsend
KC Chiefs Shortest Punt Over 36.5 (-110)
Only nine of Townsend’s 69 punts have gone under 36.5, so 87% of them have cleared.
He’s averaged 3.5 punts per game this season, so the fact he’s projected to see more punts (the market is around four) is not ideal. Still, that’s only around a 0.5 more than usual while Wishnowsky is closer to a full punt higher.
Townsend's also going to benefit from punting at Allegiant Stadium, potentially averaging around 1.5 yards more per punt.
The Chiefs punter has benefited from kicking indoors this season. He’s averaged 46.1 yards per punt outdoors compared to 50.2 yards indoors. In fact, 12 of his 13 punts indoors have cleared 36.5 (92%).
I’m showing Townsend’s median closer to 38.5 yards with a 59% chance he doesn’t have a one go under 36.5. Circling back to the fact that this game is inside a dome, I think he’s more likely to clear this so the actual odds of this hitting may be in the 60-63% range.
This prop can be found in the “Game Props” section at DraftKings.
| Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 33.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 34.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 35.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 36.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 37.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 38.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 39.5 | 44% | 56% |
Pick: KC Chiefs Shortest Punt Over 36.5 (-110)
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CB Charvarius Ward
Under 4.5 Tackles + Ast (-120)
Ward has been held under 4.5 in 10-of-17 (full) games (59%). However, this is a matchup where he might have less tackling opportunities than usual.
He’s going to be covering a Chiefs receiver who’s lined up on the right side at least 90% of the time. Rashee Rice typically lines up on the right side just 20% of the time, which means he'll likely be covering Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Justin Watson.
Ward is the 49ers’ best cornerback, so it would make sense for the Chiefs to scheme plays that force him to cover Valdes-Scantling or Watson in an attempt to get Rice and Travis Kelce favorable matchups.
Both Valdes-Scantling and Watson have very low target rates and run a lot of downfield routes that could potentially force Ward out of the play. He’d be much less likely to be involved in trying to tackle Isiah Pacheco, Kelce, etc. A safety would probably be involved in any downfield tackling opportunities as well.
I’m projecting Ward for around 1.5 tackles in the run game and 2.5 in the pass game for four total tackles. He has a 61% chance of staying under 4.5 tackles and assists.
