49ers vs. Rams Odds, Picks, Predictions: Experts Debate Spread, 11 More Ways They’re Betting NFC Championship

The 49ers are on a three-win road streak dating back to their must-win Week 18 showdown against — you guessed it — the Rams. Now these NFC West foes will meet for the third time this season, this time with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line in the NFC Championship Game of the 2022 NFL playoffs.

Can the 49ers carry their momentum and beat the Rams for the third time this season? Two of our experts are betting on it, while six are betting on the 49ers to at least cover the 3.5-point spread as underdogs. We do have one analyst on the Rams, though.

You'll find cases for betting either side of the spread below, followed by 11 more picks for Sunday night's showdown.

49ers vs. Rams Picks

49ers Spread

written by Sean Koerner

I have a sense of deja vu betting on the 49ers +3.5 against the Rams, considering I backed them at this exact number only three weeks ago. My analysis this time is similar to the last, in that the 49ers match up well against the Rams — the Niners play a very physical style of football, which is one way to beat the Rams.

The 49ers went on the road to beat the Cowboys and Packers in order to make it to the NFC Championship Game (and that was after winning on the road at the Rams in Week 18 in order to even make the playoffs). The 49ers were able to advance this far despite Jimmy Garoppolo having two very poor performances in the first two playoff games with only 303 combined passing yards for zero touchdowns and two interceptions against the Cowboys and Packers. But the Rams' zone-heavy scheme is the type of defense Jimmy G has thrived against. The Rams play Cover 3/4/6 at the highest rate in the league and Garoppolo ranks first in Success Rate (out of 38 qualified quarterbacks) against Cover 3/4/6 this season.

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford has torched opposing defenses when they blitz, ranking first in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), quarterback rating and Expected Points Added (EPA) among 40 QBs. But considering the 49ers blitz at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, they won’t have to alter their defensive approach at all, another way they match up well against Los Angeles.

I'm assigning the Rams only a half-point for home-field advantage, which happens to be the most generous amount compared to my colleagues whose models also factor into our NFL PRO Projections, giving me a projected spread of Rams -2.5.

I also detailed how the status of 49ers left tackle Trent Williams has an impact on my final projection here. If he is ruled out I would bump my projection to Rams -3. Considering +3.5 is such a key number, it makes sense to lock the 49ers in now.

If Williams is upgraded to probable, we could see sharps bet this down to Rams -3 (check real-time NFL odds here).

Rams Spread

written by Billy Ward

By now, you've probably seen tons of stats on the Sean McVay-Kyle Shanahan rivalry, and how Shanahan has consistently gotten the better of McVay. (Including two wins this year.) My colleagues have cited these in various forms while picking the 49ers in this game.

While coaching matters in the NFL — more so than any other sport — neither McVay nor Shanahan will be on the field for this one.

Unfortunately for San Francisco, All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams is questionable after suffering a high-ankle sprain in last week's win over the Packers, which typically takes at least a few weeks to recover from. The splits with Williams off the field for the 49ers are stark. Jimmy Garoppolo has a QBR of 26.4 without him.

The Rams pass rush gave the Buccaneers’ depleted line fits last week — and Tampa Bay’s unit is far superior to San Francisco’s. The Rams have forced multiple turnovers in four straight games, while averaging more than three sacks in that period. Garoppolo ranks in the bottom 10 in interception rate on the season (among qualified passers).

Garoppolo is also dealing with a shoulder injury that has held him without a touchdown pass in the playoffs. Last week's game had adverse weather conditions, but he has no excuses for his performance in a dome against Dallas.

All of which is to say — this isn't the same 49ers team that beat the Rams twice this year. The Rams are playing better than they have since the start of the season, and are relatively healthy. (Their starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth is also questionable, but expected to play. While significant, he's not as much of a loss as Williams would be for the 49ers.) They're also the superior team on the whole this year, winning two more regular-season games, and finishing with a 26-point win differential advantage over San Francisco.

San Francisco was lucky to make it this far, as costly special teams errors by the Packers handed them the game. Don't expect the Rams to follow suit — their special team unit ranks fourth in the league (compared to dead last for the Packers).

While laying 3.5 points isn't ideal, the Rams should control this one easily. The 49ers passing offense won't be able to keep up with the high-powered Rams if they can't protect the quarterback. (Given the way Garoppolo has played, this may be the case even if they can protect the quarterback.)

McVay gets his revenge here in definitive fashion. This line has held pretty firm all week, but I'd be fine with taking it down to -4.5 if we get definitive news that Williams is out. It likely won't move much otherwise, though finding the Rams at -3 would be an even bigger edge.

49ers Moneyline

written by Brandon Anderson

It’s a divisional rematch for the NFC title, and the Rams are happy to be here  —  and hosting!  — but this is not the opponent they wanted to see.

The 49ers have owned the Rams, sweeping them in six matchups over the past three seasons. Sean McVay is 3-7 against Kyle Shanahan, both straight up and against the spread (ATS), and McVay's Rams were favored in eight of the 10. Considering McVay is 44-32-2 (58%) ATS against all other coaches, per our Action Labs data, Shanahan and his staff appear to have his number.

These playoff games are won in the trenches, and the Rams offensive line is the weak spot in this matchup. It will help if Andrew Whitworth returns after missing the last round, but Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead should put Matthew Stafford under pressure while Trent Williams et al. should hold their own.

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Many wondered how the 49ers defense would handle the Packers offense, but San Francisco did just fine. The Niners ranked fourth in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA over the final eight weeks, leading the league in run D over that span. The Rams have gotten nothing from the run game, so that puts this all on Stafford beating the pass rush and getting to the secondary.

Sometimes the schemes and matchups just work, and until proven otherwise, that’s been the case on both sides of this matchup. The 49ers can run on the Rams and control the clock. And San Francisco’s defense has handled Los Angeles' attack.

Really, the metrics say San Francisco is every bit as good as Los Angeles despite being a road dog, maybe even better since the Niners were missing key players for the middle chunk of the season. The Rams get the home game, but it sure sounded like a 49ers crowd at SoFi in Week 18, so I’m not sure there’s much home-field advantage to factor in, nor any weather.

That means we’re getting a couple free points on the line.

History tells us to trust Shanahan as an underdog and fade Stafford as a favorite. Shanahan is 27–18 (60%) ATS as a dog, including 2-1 ATS in the playoffs, and he’s won 12 of the last 19 such games outright. The 49ers are built to play as underdogs, controlling the clock with a run game and playing tough defense. As for Stafford, he’s still only 14-35-2 (29%) ATS against teams over .500 in November or later. That includes 7-8 straight up as a favorite, just 5-9-1 (36%) ATS.

If you’ve been following my picks this season, this one should not come as a surprise. I backed the 49ers to cover and win as Week 10 underdogs against the Rams, then did so again in Week 18. I picked them to cover and win against the Cowboys and Packers in the first two rounds, and I have Super Bowl futures on the Niners, too. I’m expecting a 49ers’ victory on Championship Sunday.

49ers Team Over

written by Michael Arinze

On top of taking the points with San Francisco, I'm backing the 49ers to go over their team total of 20.5 points.

According to GimmeTheDog.com, dating back to the 2002 season, teams that won a playoff game by scoring 13 or fewer points scored at least 21 points in seven of the nine subsequent games in this spot. And if you exclude the Ravens — who were involved in three of the games — all six teams scored over 21 points the following week.

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