Jauan Jennings
Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Deebo Samuel is going to miss tonight's game and potentially more time due to a shoulder injury. That means there are a ton of snaps and targets up for grabs in the 49ers offense.
Books seems to expect that Jennings will pick up most of the work. He’s only cleared this number in two of five games this season, barely clearing it with 31 in one of those.
I’m not so sure that will be the case for Jennings, though. He typically sees most of his playing time in 11 personnel (three WRs), but the 49ers use that at the second-lowest rate in the league. They may use that even less without Samuel tonight.
Jennings' main increase in playing time will be in 21 personnel (two RBs, which in this case are FB Kyle Juszczyk snaps), which is what the 49ers use the most. However, last week against the Browns when Samuel went down early, it was Ray-Ray McCloud who took a lot of the 21 personnel snaps left behind. So, Jennings' playing time was fairly the same.
Jennings should get a bump in playing time and target rate, but probably not enough to have his median projection in the 30s.
The Vikings tend to allow high-percentage completions underneath and have allowed the fifth-lowest rate of pass attempts 15+ yards down the field, so this is not a matchup I expect Jennings to see get peppered with targets. Think of this prop as rooting for McCloud to get more playing time than people expect and when Jennings is on the field for Brock Purdy to target the big names in Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. It will be less stressful when you think of it that way.
I’m projecting Jennings' median closer to 25.5 and a 60% chance he stays under 30.5.
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