The five most valuable props for Saturday afternoon's Seahawks vs. 49ers target Brock Purdy and Geno Smith, according to the Action Network's predictive analytics.
However, the metrics aren't necessarily bullish on the two quarterbacks.
The other player on this most valuable list is probably flying underneath your radar.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Seahawks vs. 49ers
- Brock Purdy over 28.5 pass attempts +105 (DraftKings)
- Elijah Mitchell under 40.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Brock Purdy over 19.5 pass completions +105 (DraftKings)
- Geno Smith under 17.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Jauan Jennings under 17.5 receiving yards -110 (PointsBet)
*Odds and data are as of Friday afternoon, according to Koerner's models. These are the market's most valuable prices.
Three of the five most valuable props for this Wild Card Round matchup between the Seahawks and 49ers involve Purdy and Smith.
For Purdy, our predictive models are bullish on the amount of times Purdy will throw, even in the rain and wind that's projected in the South Bay.
Purdy is projected to throw roughly 31.5 times, relative to a market price of o28.5 (+105). That's a roughly 15% betting edge.
Effectively, you're getting a 15% discount on the true price of that prop bet, according to our algorithms.
In a correlated pick, Purdy is expected to complete 20.6 passes against a market consensus of 19.5 at a vig of +105. That pick provides about a 9% edge.
As for Smith, our models aren't very bullish on his ability to run the ball on Saturday. He's expected to run for just 14 yards against a 15.7 market projection. That under is worth about a 9% edge, too.
