The Atlanta Falcons (6-7) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) will face off in NFL Week 15 at 8:30 p.m. ET from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Monday Night Football will be broadcast live on ESPN and can be streamed on ESPN+.
Let's get into my Falcons vs. Raiders predictions and Monday Night Football picks, as well as the latest betting trends, injury reports, inactives and weather forecast.
The latest Falcons vs. Raiders odds list the Falcons as -275 moneyline favorites and Raiders as +225 underdogs. The over/under is 44.5 total points (-110o / -110u). The Falcons are 6-point favorites on the spread over the Falcons (-6; -110).
Falcons vs. Raiders Odds, Prediction, Pick
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
- Falcons vs. Raiders spread: Falcons -6
- Falcons vs. Raiders over/under: 44.5 points scored
- Falcons vs. Raiders moneyline: Falcons -275, Raiders +225
- Falcons vs. Raiders pick: Falcons 1H -3
MyFalcons vs. Raiders bet is on Atlanta against the first-half spread.
- 90% of bets and 96% of the money are on the Falcons moneyline
- 85% of bets and 79% of the money are on the game total to go over
- 88% of bets and 76% of the money are on the Falcons to cover the spread
Against the Spread
I’m not comfortable laying 5.5 points since Sean Koerner’s projected spread is 4.5 and Chris Raybon’s is 3.5, but I do want to fade Desmond Ridder here. The Falcons offense is poised to turn some of its efficiency into more points.
I'll put my bet down on the first-half spread, which is a great way to fade Ridder based on his career numbers. As of 10:15 a.m. ET on Monday, BetMGM is the only book with Falcons 1H -3. I'd recommend shopping around with our NFL odds page to get the best number but would also play this up to -4.
My Pick: Falcons 1H -3
Over/Under
The only total I'd look to bet in this game is the Falcons team total at 24.5, but I'll pass.
Falcons vs. Raiders Picks, Preview
I’d call this a revenge game for Desmond Ridder, but that usually indicates there was some ugly breakup that the player can hold hard feelings about.
Instead, no one is surprised that the Falcons moved on from Ridder. Last season in 15 games (13 starts), Ridder had 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The Falcons were 6-7 in his starts, but it was that good (and it wasn’t good) more in spite of Ridder than because of him.
Now, that said, the Falcons are 6-7 this season with Kirk Cousins under center.
Cousins is averaging 1.1 more Air Yards per attempt than Ridder did in his Falcons career, which indicates how much more big-play potential Cousins offers compared to Ridder.
The issue, though, is that Cousins has 15 interceptions in 13 games this season. Atlanta has lost four straight games, and Cousins has thrown eight interceptions in that span. That includes a four-interception game two weeks ago at home against the Chargers in a 17-13 loss that easily could have been a Falcons win.
During this four-game losing streak, Cousins has not thrown a touchdown pass.
Now, this is a good matchup for Cousins since the Raiders defense is 22nd in Pass DVOA. The Falcons are 13th in Pass DVOA, which speaks volumes to how efficient they are despite the lack of touchdowns and interceptions.
After a four-game stretch without a touchdown pass and eight interceptions, most teams wouldn’t still be in the top 20 of Pass DVOA, much less 13th.
The Falcons’ team total is 24.5 for the game and 13.5 for the first half, which is a bit too rich for me. Instead, I’m going to simply bet on Atlanta and fade the Raiders.
In his career, Ridder is 5-12 against the first-half spread. So, my pick for the game is Falcons 1H -3. We’ll bet on Atlanta to have a first-half lead of more than a field goal.
My Pick: Falcons 1H -3
Falcons vs. Raiders Injuries
Falcons Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| DT Ruke Orhorhoro | Questionable (ankle) |
| LB Troy Andersen | Out (knee) |
| WR Casey Washington | Out (concussion) |
Raiders Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| DT Adam Butler | Questionable (concussion) |
| QB Aidan O'Connell | Questionable (knee) |
| CB Sam Webb | Doubtful (back) |
| DE Maxx Crosby | Out (ankle) |
Falcons vs. Raiders Betting Trends
Falcons Trends
- Falcons are 0-4 in their last 4 games against the spread
- Falcons are 3-3 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone UNDER in 4 of the Falcons’ last 5 games
Raiders Trends
- Raiders are 1-5 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Raiders are 2-3 in their home games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of the Raiders’ last 6 games.
