The Atlanta Falcons (8-7) and Washington Commanders (10-5) are set to meet on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md., is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
The Commanders are 3.5-point favorites on the spread over the Falcons; the game total set at 46.5 points (-110o / -110u). The Commanders are -192 favorites on the moneyline and the Falcons are +160 underdogs in this NFC clash.
Let’s get into our Sunday Night Football predictions and Falcons vs Commanders picks, props and parlay.
Falcons vs Commanders Predictions
- Against the Spread: Falcons +4.5 (-110); Bet to +4
- Over/Under Pick: Over 46 (-110)
- Player Props: Olamide Zaccheaus Over 3.5 Receptions (+120)
Falcons vs Commanders Odds
- Spread: Falcons +3.5 (-118), Commanders -3.5 (-102)
- Over/Under: 46.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Falcons +160, Commanders -192
Odds via DraftKings as of Sunday at 6:41 p.m. ET. Get the latest NFL odds here.
Falcons vs Commanders SNF Parlay
You can parlay our 3 picks at DraftKings for a +525 SGP on Thursday night.
- Falcons +4 (-129)
- Over 46.5 (-110)
- Olamide Zaccheaus Over 3.5 Receptions (+120)
Falcons vs Commanders ParlayOdds: +525 at DraftKings
Falcons vs Commanders Spread Pick
By John LanFranca
Since the beginning of the 2021 season, teams who have a winning record, are road underdogs of four or more points, and playing inside their own conference are 33-19 (63.5%) against the spread (ATS). Even if you take away all games inside the division, those road 'dogs are still covering at a 60.9% clip over that span.
Michael Penix Jr. will have the benefit of a ground attack that should produce against a vulnerable Commanders defense.
Washington has struggled to defend the run the entire season. It ranks 25th in rush defense DVOA and 23rd in run stop win rate, according to ESPN data. The Commanders are giving up 4.8 yards per attempt — ranking 29th in the league — and continue to be gashed by the league's best running backs, which Bijan Robinson undoubtedly is at this point.
Penix should also thrive when Atlanta runs play-action, which it did on 22% on his dropbacks. This is a sharp increase from Kirk Cousins, who ranked last in play-action rate due to his limited mobility.
Penix put a promising performance on tape in his first start. The numbers may not have blown you away, but consider that 11% of his attempts were dropped last week.
In what should be a high-scoring affair, Atlanta should be able to keep up with a Commanders offense coming off an emotional high. I am expecting the Falcons to deliver an efficient performance against a Washington defense that has given up 26.5 points per game over its last six games.
Editor's Note: The best line for the Falcons is +3.5 across most sportsbooks, but you can still grab Falcons +4 as an alternate spread.
Pick: Falcons 4.5 (-110); Bet to +4
Falcons vs Commanders Over/Under Prediction
By Billy Ward
The driving factor behind this total is likely to be the Falcons.
Washington is averaging more than 30 points per game across its three-game winning streak, all of which came against better (or comparable) defenses than the Falcons'.
While the Commanders are not a lock for 30 points, I’d be fairly surprised if they don’t at least get to the mid-20s. That means three touchdowns or so from Atlanta brings this one over the total, especially since that would push Washington to stay aggressive.
The Falcons put up 30 last week in the debut of rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. That’s slightly misleading since two of the touchdowns came on defense, but still, Penix was efficient in completing two-thirds of his passes for 7.50 yards per attempt. He was also robbed of his first touchdown pass by Kyle Pitts, who bobbled a pass at the goal line (which turned into an interception).
Regardless, it was an encouraging debut for Penix. Plus, it’s reasonable to project some improvement from Penix coming into his second start.
Penix and the Falcons should, at a minimum, keep this one close enough to make for a high-scoring game.
Pick: Over 46 (-110); Bet to Over 46.5 (-110 to -120)
Sunday Night Football Player Props
By Matt Trebby
Sean Koerner has Zaccheaus projected for 3.8 receptions, so I’m all over this over at a plus number.
Dyami Brown is out for the Commanders, which creates a firm top three among their wide receivers: Terry McLaurin and Zaccheaus on the outside with Jamison Crowder in the slot. Brown has seen 14 targets in the last three games, and those will have to be replaced somehow.
Zaccheaus saw three targets in back-to-back games before getting eight last week, when Washington was in full comeback mode against the Eagles. He ran a season-high 32 routes against Philadelphia and could be in for a similar workload tonight.
I’m targeting receptions instead of yards for Zaccheaus because his average depth of target (aDOT) on the season is just 4.9 yards downfield. I’m backing him for volume — not efficiency.
Pick: Olamide Zaccheaus Over 3.5 Receptions (+120)
