Austin Hooper
Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Hooper has posted 20 yards in each game this season and has caught all three of his targets.
It’s not sustainable for him to have an aDot of 12.3 and maintain a 100% catch rate. I expect him to average around a 65% catch rate if he maintains a target depth that far downfield, or he could see his aDot take a dip (which is more likely) and open the door for needing three receptions in order to clear this number.
Hooper is averaging a 55% routes run rate, but we could see rookie Michael Mayer’s role increase at some point. I think around 55% could be close to Hooper’s ceiling.
He’s also only commanding a target on 10% of his routes — that's despite Jakobi Meyers missing last week’s game. Meyers' return to action should negatively impact Hooper's involvement, and we could also see Josh Jacobs and the running game start to see positive regression.
I'm projecting Hooper's median closer to 14.5 and would bet down to 17.5.
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