Bears vs. Lions open the Thursday NFL Thanksgiving slate. The game is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET at Ford Field and will be broadcast on CBS.
This is a contest where the Lions likely get up fast, run the ball down the Bears' throat and put themselves in position to score on nearly every drive. Running backs like like Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are -150 or lower to score because the Bears rank 31st in defensive DVOA vs. the run.
While I expect Jared Goff to have some involvement in the passing game, I’m not too sure he’ll need to throw as much in the second half. This means you likely need to hit your Lions TD bet in the first half or you could be out of time.
Here are my three Bears vs. Lions anytime TD scorers for Thanksgiving.
Bears vs. Lions Anytime Touchdown Scorers
- WR Jameson Williams +210 (DraftKings)
- TE Sam LaPorta 1st Half +450 (FanDuel)
- WR Rome Odunze +325 (FanDuel)
Jameson Williams Anytime Touchdown (+210)
If you’re looking at Lions TD scorers, it starts with Jameson Williams.
Williams has the best matchup to succeed as the Bears defend the short pass quite well (fifth in defensive DVOA) and he has the highest average depth of target (aDOT) on the team against zone coverage, which the Bears play at a top-10 rate, while also having the second-highest target share vs. zone.
Sam LaPorta 1st Half Anytime Touchdown (+450)
This Sam LaPorta angle is merely playing the percentages.
He has 14 touchdowns in his career (13 in regular season). All of them have been scored indoors, and 13 have been in the first half.
Rome Odunze Anytime Touchdown (+325)
You’d be hard-pressed to feel great about Bears TD scorers in this one.
The Lions defense has feasted on opposing quarterbacks all season and has only been down in the second half twice all season — Week 3 against the Buccaneers and Week 10 against the Texans. As a result, the Lions have looked like they have no obvious weakness defensively and the data seems to back that up.
The Lions are top five in defensive DVOA against the pass and the run while also ranking top five in touchdowns allowed to every key position (RB, TE, WR).
The strategy should be to bet on pass-catchers with a lot of value and bank on potential garbage-time scores. The Lions pass defense relies on man coverage — they play it at top-three rate and blitz at the fourth-highest rate.
There’s no true standout on the Bears that can take advantage of man defense, but the one that intrigues me the most is rookie Rome Odunze.
Odunze got a higher target rate, yards per route run and aDOT against man defense than DJ Moore or Cole Kmet. And if it does become a blowout, there's a chance veterans like Keenan Allen and Moore take a backseat in the second half.
