I can’t think of a better way to start Thanksgiving than a Bears vs. Lions parlay.
I’m following the trends for my pick against the spread, recent performance on the game total and the matchup for my player prop. We have every market covered and came up with a +950 Thanksgiving parlay at DraftKings.
These three legs don't exactly correlate, which gives us higher odds. Normally, you wouldn't take a 10.5-point favorite and the under, and you also wouldn't take a touchdown scorer prop with the under. It all works, though, and gives us a good shot at winning.
Let’s lay out my three legs and get to my NFL parlay to begin the Turkey Day tripleheader.
Bears vs. Lions Parlay on Thanksgiving
- Lions -9 (-112)
- Under 48 (-112)
- Jameson Williams Anytime Touchdown (+210)
Parlay Odds: +1100 | $10 Bet Wins $110
Leg 1: Lions -9 (-112)
Obviously, the Lions are the better team. Most of our experts have them rated as the best team in the NFL, and it looks like the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will go through Detroit.
The Lions are 10-1, but they’re more impressively 9-2 against the spread. If Detroit wins the game, chances are it’s going to cover.
The trends say that generally is the way to bet games on Thanksgiving.
Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 38-19 against the spread (ATS). Favorites of 10 or more points are 9-0 ATS since 2005.
Leg 2: Under 48 (-110)
The one gives us some nice reverse correlation, as you’d generally take the double-digit-point underdog if you were betting the under.
Instead, we’re backing a Detroit defense that is thriving. The Lions rank first in Weighted DVOA, which measures how a team is performing of late instead of over the course of the entire season.
In their past five games — against the Titans, Packers, Texans, Jaguars and Colts — the Lions are giving up an average of 12.6 points per game. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of offenses, but it’s not like the Bears have been playing well offensively this season.
The Bears' defense hasn’t exactly been thriving, but I’m expecting the Lions to eat clock and focus on the ground game against Chicago. Detroit has scored more than 26 points once in its past four games, and that was against the Mac Jones-led Jaguars.
Leg 3: Jameson Williams Anytime TD Scorer (+210)
Again, it helps parlaying the under with a touchdown scorer, which we’re being rewarded for doing here at DraftKings.
David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown all have minus odds in the anytime touchdown scorer market for this matchup, so I’m pivoting to Williams.
Anyway, it’s a great matchup for Williams, who’s averaging four receptions on six targets across his past three games since returning from suspension. Also, the Bears rank 31st in DVOA against opposing WR2s.
Also, as was pointed out to my by touchdown guru Gilles Gallant, the Bears defend short passes well, which opens the field up for big plays like the one Jordan Addison hit against them on Sunday. Williams has the highest average depth of target on the Lions against zone coverage, which the Bears play at a top-10 rate in the NFL.
