Last week it felt like we were right on the money with our game script. Unfortunately, a Teddy Bridgewater pick-six switched the dynamic late to a two-score game, and our parlay crumbled. Hopefully we can again forecast the game correctly but, this time, walk away with a Holiday bonus!
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for Sunday Night Football. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBet's $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
Bears vs. Packers Odds
The point spread sums up our expectations for this game. At home, the Packers are hefty 12-point favorites. This large spread comes just about two months after Aaron Rodgers proclaimed to Soldier Field, “I own you.” Despite Rodgers' words, the previous matchup was a three-point game halfway through the fourth quarter. Let’s discuss why this game might be different.
For starters, injuries have hampered the Bears' talented defensive front. Their two best defenders upfront are out in Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack. Both recorded a sack in the first matchup, and without them, life will be much easier in the pocket for Aaron Rodgers.
Next, the Packers' defense has been much better these past few weeks. They have allowed zero teams to rush for over 100 yards in the past five games after allowing five of the previous seven teams they faced to do so. Stopping the run will force the ball into Justin Fields’ hands.
While Fields has made huge strides since their last meeting, the Packers' defense still ranks fifth in Net Yards per Attempt ninth in interceptions. Being forced to throw will also be bad for a Bears offensive line that allows the highest Sack Rate in the NFL, per Pro Football Reference.
I know there is not much detail to the matchups in this one, but that is because the spread mostly tells the story. Last week we saw a similar game as the Cardinals took on the Bears. Arizona bolted out to a hot start then took its feet off the gas, and the Bears got within our current huge spread.
I fear something similar may happen so we will stick with trusting the Packers to dominate the first half and avoid second-half props. This way we don’t have to worry about a sneaky backdoor cover by Chicago.
The Parlay (+1100)
- Justin Fields Over 190.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- A.J. Dillon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Under 47.5 (-240)
- Green Bay Packers -7.5 1H (+120)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Bears vs. Packers
Prop 1: Justin Fields Over 190.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Bears will be forced away from the run early and will be trailing. In his last performance on SNF, Fields looked like he had found some rhythm and was becoming the player we all anticipated. He did play poorly and was eventually knocked out of the Ravens game the following week.
However, with a couple of weeks off he should be ready to go. In their last game, the Packers got complacent after creating a big lead and gave up huge plays to the Rams. I could see a similar situation here thanks to Chicago’s speed and Fields' arm talent.
Prop 2: A.J. Dillon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The A.J. Dillon prop follows the same logic as the Fields one. The Packers will have their lead from early in the game and will try to grind the clock out. Dillon, thanks to his size and power, has become the Packers' best bruising back to eat clock. This keeps Aaron Jones fresher and healthier for when they need his explosive play ability on passing downs.
After all who would defenses rather be tackling on cold late nights: five-foot-nine, 208-pound Aaron Jones or the “Quadfather,” who is six feet tall and 250 pounds?
Prop 3: Under 47.5 (-240)
We are buying up some cushion on the total in hopes of playing it safe. The reason we go this route is because an under, even if we buy up, gives some extra value when paired with our over props. The reason we are trusting the under is because Green Bay is not a team that typically runs the score up.
Even in the “I own you” game, Green Bay still put up just 24 points. They have no problem keeping things closer than most teams thanks to their trust in Rodgers and their defense. Their point differential is smaller than the Eagles' differential, even though Philly has four more losses. We expect them to pop early, but after that they should have no problem just running the clock and finishing with a win.
Prop 4: Green Bay Packers -7.5 1H (+120)
Here is the lynchpin to our parlay. Unfortunately, the currently listed line of Packers -6.5 is unavailable for same game parlays and -5.5 just did not give us the juice needed. Starting strong has just not been the Bears' MO this season. In first halves, they have thrown for more interceptions than touchdowns, and the defense has allowed 11 touchdowns and forced no interceptions.
Green Bay having the better coach and an extra week to prepare should mean a fast start for the Packers. Plus, Rodgers will want to support his claim over the Bears right away. Anytime Rodgers has a little extra motivation for a game, trusting the Packers to come out swinging is a good bet.
That's our four-leg parlay–hopefully we can hit this one big and have money to buy the family the rare roast beast!
