Bears vs Packers Player Prop: Aaron Jones
RB Aaron Jones
Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
Jones has had 20+ carries and 120+ rushing yards in back-to-back games, but I expect him to cool off a bit here in terms of his workload.
The Bears are not a team you want to run too much against. Chicago ranks fourth in Run DVOA and is more of a pass-funnel defense. That's especially the case with top CB Jaylon Johnson listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury. Johnson has a had a Pro Bowl-caliber season, so his absence makes it more likely the Packers lean on Jordan Love even more than usual here.
The Bears have allowed the third-fewest rush attempts per game. A lot of that has to do with their stout run defense, but also the fact that they rank second in the NFL in time of possession. Chicago is a run-heavy team that plays at the third-slowest pace in the NFL, so it eats a lot of clock that way.
However, the Bears are vulnerable to RBs in the passing game and have allowed the second-most receptions per game to opposing RBs.
A.J. Dillon is out which gives Jones a boost, but that’s already being factored in. Patrick Taylor should mix in on early-down work and third-stringer Emmanuel Wilson may return today. We could also see WR Jayden Reed get a few designed rush attempts, which will only help this pick.
This is also another way to invest in Bears +3 since I think Chicago should keep this game close or even win outright, which would help prevent the Packers from become too run-heavy.
I'm projecting Jones' rush attempts today closer to 15.5 with a 60% chance he stays under 16.5.
