Since gambling has existed, the idea of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay tonight for Bengals vs. Ravens.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the tangled web of correlation between each leg. However, they are fun. And just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 or better odds to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Thursday Night Football parlay built at FanDuel.
Bengals vs. Ravens Parlay
- Bengals +6.5 & Over 52.5 (+224)
- Lamar Jackson Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
- Diontae Johnson Over 2.5 Receptions (+130)
Full Bengals vs. Ravens Parlay Odds: +1059 | $10 Bet Wins $105.90
TNF Picks Against the Spread & Over Under
I'm grouping these together as one pick for a couple reasons.
First, the numbers. FanDuel has the best number by one-half point in both markets at the time of writing, with the prevailing odds at most books favoring Baltimore by six with a total of 52.0. It's just one-half point in both cases, but they're relatively important numbers in both markets. Turning either bet from a push into a win would have a big impact on the final payout.
From an analysis standpoint, I don't see how the Bengals can over the spread in a game that stays under. Their defense ranks 25th in both DVOA and points allowed per game, and they allowed 41 points the last time these teams met. That was against a Ravens offense that has since added Diontae Johnson, so I'm not sure how it gets better for the Bengals defense this time around.
On the other hand, Cincinnati still managed to cover the spread in that game by scoring 38 of its own. The Bengals match up extremely well with the strengths and weaknesses of the Ravens defense, which is tough against the run but vulnerable through the air. Cincinnati has the highest Pass Rate Over Expectation in the NFL by a substantial margin.
That paints a clear picture of the Bengals keeping pace during a shootout. I'd love to get a full seven points on the spread for a bit of extra safety, but 6.5 is still a big number for Baltimore to cover.
Lamar Jackson Player Props
Lamar Jackson has looked much better as a passer in recent weeks with his four highest passing yardage totals coming in the last five games. Baltimore has a workhorse running back in Derrick Henry, to whom it's comfortable feeding carries, and the addition of another wide receiver signals a desire to let Jackson win games with his arm rather than his legs.
Jackson has cleared this yardage total just once in the last four weeks, and only one of those games had Johnson in the lineup. The top prop in our NFL Props tool is his attempts under but since that's not available in parlays, this serves as a reasonable proxy.
The other nice feature is that we're getting a better price by including his under than his over, despite equal juice on both sides of the line. It's somewhat close — since Jackson going under correlates with the Bengals covering — but we'll take whatever we can get.
Diontae Johnson Player Props
Johnson failed to draw a single target in his debut, but there's plenty of potential reasons for that. The obvious was that he'd only been in Baltimore a few days and needed time to get familiar with the playbook. While the short week isn't ideal in that regard, it's at least a few more practices under his belt.
The game script was also a big factor. Baltimore attempted just 19 passes in its blowout win over the Broncos, so there weren't many looks to go around. Since we're building around a much closer game this week, that expands the opportunities for Johnson.
Baltimore also runs a lot of two tight end sets, but will likely (pun intended) be without one of those two tight ends since Isaiah Likely is yet to practice this week. That frees up room for more 11 personnel, in which Johnson would presumably function as the WR3.
Since we're getting this one at plus-money, it brings the overall odds to +1059.
Full Bengals vs. Ravens Parlay Odds: +1059 | $10 Bet Wins $105.90
