I've found my NFL player prop for Thursday Night Football tonight.
For Bengals vs. Ravens, I'm backing a wide receiver whose role should increase tonight with Tee Higgins listed as doubtful have a huge role in the Cincinnati passing game. Let's get into my NFL prop for tonight.
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Andrei Iosivas Player Prop
Andrei Iosivas has essentially replaced the Tee Higgins role on offense with him out over the Bengals' last two games. However, you wouldn’t know it considering he’s only caught one pass for 10 yards (a touchdown).
Iosivas is playing plenty of snaps, though. In those two games, he has a 93% routes run rate and has gotten seven targets from Joe Burrow.
However, Iosivas been extremely unlucky to only come away with one catch as a few of his targets were throws that Burrow just missed. He nearly gained 20+ yards on a couple of them.
I think this is a great spot to buy low. This is a matchup where the Bengals will lean into the passing game against a pass-funnel Ravens defense that thrives against the run.
I'm projecting his median closer to 28.5 with around a 61% chance that he clears 20.5.
Geno Stone Player Prop
Geno Stone typically gets a handful of tackles in every game, but he's only cleared this number three times in nine games this season.
Safeties tend to see fewer tackle opportunities against the Ravens, and Stone tends to play deep safety at a high rate. Also, when playing with a lead, Stone has a tackle on 8.6% of snaps, which ranks fifth of 13 qualified players on the Bengals defense. When trailing, he only has a tackle on 4.2% of snaps, which ranks last among those 13 qualified players.
This is a matchup where the Bengals are more likely to face a trailing game script as six-point underdogs. That will likely lower Stone's tackle rate quite a bit.
I'm projecting him closer to five tackles with around a 61% chance of staying below 5.5.
