It’s always explosive when the Bills face the Chiefs, and it won’t be any different in Sunday's AFC Championship Game. We’re set for another big game between two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks: Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Bills vs. Chiefs is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast live on CBS.
Continue below for my Bills vs. Chiefs player props for the AFC Championship Game.
Bills vs. Chiefs Player Props
Dawson Knox Over 1.5 Receptions (+102)
In the regular season, only two teams gave up more receptions to tight ends than the Chiefs, who allowed 6.2 receptions per game to the position. Last week, the Texans' Dalton Schultz had four catches to his name, and even Irv Smith managed a reception.
The difficulty here is picking which of the two Bills’ TEs are worth backing — Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid.
The younger Kincaid is the better pass catcher and led the Bills' TE room in receptions this season, but through two playoff games, they are tied for targets (five), with Kincaid hauling in one more.
However, Kincaid’s line is at 2.5, so we can take a slightly lower number here for somebody receiving the same volume of targets.
Kareem Hunt Over 6.5 Receiving Yards (+122)
No team in the NFL allowed more receiving yards to running backs than the Bills, who gave up a staggering 44.1 yards through the air to RBs each game. It’s an area to attack this team, and it will surely be identified by the Chiefs.
Kansas City's backfield looks to be a committee between Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, but Hunt has been more effective and had more usage in recent weeks. Hunt has not been a real factor in the Chiefs' passing game this year.
However, when needed, he’s been efficient, putting up seven catches against the Broncos in Week 10. His receiving yards line stands at 6.5 and feels like a safer bet than taking Hunt's receptions.
Hunt's averaged 7.4 yards per catch this season, and with the Bills having an Achilles heel against running backs in the passing game, we could see him hit this number on one or two receptions.
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)
There is no greater love story in recent NFL history than that of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, a partnership with the sort of romance Taylor Swift writes songs about.
It didn’t matter that this year had been a poor one for Kelce. We knew that when it really mattered and the season was on the line, it would be the veteran tight end that Mahomes would trust.
We got a signal in Week 17 when Kelce had double-digit targets, turning them into eight catches and 84 yards. He duly delivered the goods in his next game with seven receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Texans.
This Bills team knows how to handle tight ends, making it a gamble to take Kelce at his yardage total. So, instead, we’re pivoting to receptions.
Kelce's only gone over 6.5 receptions eight times this season, but we need to accept this is the playoffs, and usual rules don’t always apply when it comes to favored players. He had a total of 32 receptions in last season’s four-game playoff run; we should have another big target game for Kelce again on Sunday.
Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown (+200)
When it comes to touchdown scorers for the Chiefs, there are a number that I like.
Kelce (+170) stands out for the reasons above, as does Kareem Hunt (+180), who seems too expensive just because of some confusion around who might get the carries. However, in terms of value, Xavier Worthy offers the best bang for our buck.
Worthy found the end zone in his final three games of the regular season before putting up a blank against the Texans. However, the team still found ways to put the ball in his hands.
He hasn't been the most efficient receiver this year, but the Chiefs can use him in a variety of ways, making him prime for trick plays, which we often see at the business end of the season. Three of his nine touchdowns came on the ground, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see another one against the Bills.
Over the past four games, he’s racked up 37 targets and with nine carries. The Chiefs are finding ways to get him the ball, and we need to take note of that.
