The Buffalo Bills are no strangers to games with high point spreads. They're not so used to being on the gifting end of double-digit points, though.
Since the start of the 2003 season, the Bills have played 262 games. They've been favored in 96 of those games (36.6%), and have been more than a touchdown favorite just 10 times. The largest point spread they've laid over that span: 11 points against the 2004 San Francisco 49ers — the 2-14 San Francisco 49ers.
On Sunday, Buffalo is a 17-point favorite against the Dolphins. It's the first time since 1992 that the Bills have been favored by that much (they lost that game outright, 24-17, to the Jets).
Odds as of Tuesday at 12 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Don't let that be just a knock on the Dolphins, though. The Bills' 4-1 record gives them the second-best win percentage in the AFC, and our simulations give them a 70.6% chance to make the playoffs despite sharing a division with the Patriots.
Buffalo has historically been a decent bet when favored — going 52-44-1 against the spread (ATS) in our database — and even more so when the public goes the other way. The Bills are 21-12 ATS when favored and receiving 50% or fewer bets.
Of course, since players and coaches come and go, there's no good reason to expect such trends to be predictive of future outcomes. As it stands now, 62% of bettors are taking the Dolphins to cover the lofty spread.
It's also worth noting that the total in this game is among the week's lowest. Sitting at a flat 40, it may seem like it should be a bit harder for the Bills to pull away in a low-scoring game, especially if Miami can get a touchdown or two on the board.
This season, that's been much easier said than done for the Dolphins, who are averaging 8.4 points per game.
Oddsmakers have also historically been good at taking away any potential edge associated with big underdogs in low-total games — at least in the NFL. Teams getting more than a touchdown in games listed at 40 or less have gone 111-120-1 ATS in our database.
