Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Bills vs. Dolphins parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he just tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home.
Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Bills vs. Dolphins Thursday Night Football parlay built on DraftKings.
Bills vs. Dolphins Parlay for Thursday Night Football
- Over 48.5 (-112)
- Bills +2.5 (-108)
- Josh Allen Interception (-140)
- Jaylen Wright Anytime TD (+165)
Full Bills vs. Dolphins Parlay Odds: +1800 | $10 Bet Wins $180
Over 48.5 (-112)
These teams combined to score 54 points in Week 1, with the Bills winning a shootout over the Cardinals and the Dolphins winning a close game against the Jaguars. This total has dropped 2.5 points since opening at 51, though, largely thanks to the injury news around the Dolphins backfield. Raheem Mostert is out for Miami, while De'Von Achane appears to be on the wrong side of questionable.
That's a bit of an overreaction in my mind for a couple of reasons. One, Miami drafted speedster Jaylen Wright as a direct backup for Achane this offseason. Two, the Dolphins skewing pass-heavy should only help this total.
Both offenses ranked top-five in DVOA rushing and passing last season, so they can score in any phase. Plus, neither defense is much to worry about.
Targeting the over also allows us to get some extra value on any negative/under player props we add on, which will be a key factor in our eventual build here.
Bills +2.5 (-108)
I'm getting a little greedy here trying to hit both the spread and the total, but I believe they're a bit more correlated than the odds would imply.
The Bills couldn't stop the Cardinals last week and were able to win the game by keeping their foot on the gas offensively and putting up a big score of their own. I don't see how they slow down a much more dynamic Dolphins offense in Miami, so winning/covering likely correlates with a high-scoring game.
Just like with the total pick, this is also a bit of a fade of the public. The spread opened at just +1 here, so we're getting a bit of value based on the initial read despite mid week news arguably favoring Buffalo if you think that running backs matter.
Of course, the real appeal is that any negative Bills player props will massively impact the odds here since the SGP algorithms correlate Bills winning and high-scoring games with their offensive players doing well.
Josh Allen Interception (-140)
Allen is fairly heavily favored to throw an interception here, with -140 odds on the yes and -110 odds on the no. Despite that, we're getting better odds on this parlay by taking the yes, since the other picks are optimistic about the Bills and their offense in general.
While interceptions can be positive or negative to the chances of hitting the over (depending on where on the field they take place), a back-and-forth high-scoring affair should increase the aggressiveness from the Bills offense, leading to a higher chance of a pick from Allen.
The Bills are likely to continue to throw the ball even if they're playing from the front here, given how explosive the Dolphins offense is. They know that protecting a one-score lead is probably a losing strategy, and thus will continue to push the pace.
While an interception hurts the chances of the Bills covering the spread, I don't think it's as big of an impact as the books would imply. They were 8-6 in games where he threw a pick last season, including a Week 18 win in Miami.
I'll be sprinkling something on this three-leg parlay at odds of +650, before adding one more leg to get to the big odds we're shooting for.
Jaylen Wright Anyimte TD (+165)
It looks like Achane will be a true game-time decision on Thursday, so I'd strongly suggest waiting for official news of his status before taking this bet.
However, if he misses, I'm expecting the Dolphins to use Wright in a similar role to Achane, with Jeff Wilson filling the role of Mostert.
This is more of a hunch than a data-driven pick, but it makes sense for a team with two distinct running back roles to have a backup for each. Wright and Achane both ran sub-4.4 40s coming into the draft with elite speed scores, while Wilson and Mostert are a bit bigger and slower (Mostert ran a comparable 40 when he was drafted in 2015, but has likely lost a step or two.)
That would put Wright in a solid spot to score this week against a Bills team that ranked 28th in yards per carry last season. If Achane ends up playing, pivoting to Wilson (+105) would be my preferred option.
Full Bills vs. Dolphins Parlay Odds: +1800 | $10 Bet Wins $180
