Since gambling has existed, the idea of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Buccaneers vs. Falcons parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate given the tangled web of correlation between each leg. However, they are fun. And just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 or better odds to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Bucs vs. Falcons parlay built at DraftKings.
Bucs vs. Falcons Parlay for Thursday Night Football
- Falcons -1.5
- Chris Godwin Over 5.5 Receptions (-155)
- Kirk Cousins Under 229.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Tyler Allgeier Anytime Touchdown (+205)
Full Buccaneers vs. Falcons Parlay Odds: +1300 | $10 Bet Wins $130
Falcons -1.5
This is my best bet for this game, and I'm sticking with it as a foundational piece for the SGP.
The biggest factor at play is the injury situation for Tampa Bay. Their official injury report contained a whopping 15 players, with many of those at similar positions.
While the Falcons list Bijan Robinson as questionable with a hamstring strain, he was able to get in a full practice Wednesday. A running back — even a borderline star like Robinson — is also less impactful than the players Tampa Bay is missing. The Bucs are missing at least one starter from both their offensive and defensive lines and have multiple other players questionable in both units.
On top of that, their third and fourth wide receivers are both out and No. 1 option Mike Evans is questionable following two limited practices.
That creates a few "cluster" situations at key positions and could lead to third- or fourth-string players seeing action.
Plus, Tampa has been the luckier team this season based on our Luck Rankings
Chris Godwin Over 5.5 Receptions (-155)
While I'm assuming Evans suits up, Tampa will still be somewhat thin at wide receiver with both Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer out.
In addition, there's another sneaky impact of the offensive line issues in Tampa Bay. The inability to protect Baker Mayfield means the deeper routes run by Evans have less time to develop.
Both of those factors should funnel receptions to Godwin, who has at least six catches in all four games, even Tampa Bay's two fairly comfortable wins. Factor in the negative game script implied by the Falcons covering the spread, and you have a perfect storm of targets being forced to Godwin.
Our NFL props tool gives him a median of 6.0, but that number would be higher if we knew the Falcons were covering the spread.
It's worth noting that FanDuel has the line at 6.5 — with the over at plus-money. Consider building this parlay there if you want an even bigger return, but a lower chance of winning.
Kirk Cousins Under 229.5 Passing Yards (-115)
There are two parts to this pick being featured in the parlay.
The first is the Bucs injuries. They're clustered around the defensive line, with all three of their listed starters (in a 3-4 base defense) appearing on the injury report. One of the three is already ruled out, while the other two are questionable.
That incentivizes the Falcons to focus on the ground game instead of the pass, especially if their surprisingly tough defense does it's job against a depleted Tampa Bay offense.
The other factor is the game script. A Falcons win somewhat correlates with more rushing, as Atlanta won't be chasing points and needing to take to the air.
While Cousins has cleared this line in three of four games, two of those were losses. He's averaged under 200 yards in Atlanta's two wins.
These three picks bring us to a respectable +455, but let's take a bigger swing with one more option.
Tyler Allgeier Anytime Touchdown (+205)
This isn't a great line on Allgeier in a vacuum, with our projections making his true odds around +230.
However, I'm expecting a limited role for Robinson if he suits up, especially if the Falcons are in control of this one. With the short week, it's unlikely that the lead back is anywhere near full strength, and it doesn't make sense to risk further injury if Atlanta can avoid it.
Allgeier has seen 10 opportunities in both of Atlanta's wins this season and has six red zone carries across the Falcons four games.
That he's been held without a touchdown so far is a bit unlucky as he's produced over 200 yards of total offense. I expect a bigger role for him against a banged-up Tampa front, making him a solid option when we're building a parlay around the Falcons winning.
Full Bucs vs. Falcons Parlay Odds: +1300 | $10 Bet Wins $130
