Chiefs vs Chargers Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -5.5 |
| Chargers Odds | +5.5 |
| Moneyline | -250 / +205 |
| Over/Under | 52.5 |
| Odds via FanDuel. | |
Chiefs vs Chargers Picks
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Anthony Dabbundo: No team has dealt with more injuries than the the Chargers this season, but they're getting some positive injury news with the potential returns of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. L.A.'s offense has struggled on early downs and lacked explosiveness without them.
Head coach Brandon Staley and the Chargers are specifically designed to go up against the Chiefs. They're not built to stop the run at all, but that's fine because K.C. can't really run on anyone as one of the least efficient ground attacks in the league.
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The Chargers have played the Chiefs five times since they drafted Justin Herbert. They're 4-1 against the spread (ATS), with the only loss coming in overtime after the Chiefs got the ball first and scored a touchdown.
Kansas City's leaky defense still has its flaws and the backdoor is sure to be wide open. It's a major reason the Chiefs have not been good under Mahomes when they're a favorite of more than a field goal. Since 2020, Mahomes is 13-22 when laying 3.5 or more.
In their Week 2 encounter, the Chiefs failed to cover -3.5 at home. Now they're laying six in L.A.? Even though the Chargers don't have much of a home-field advantage, that's a massive overadjustment.
I'll take the Chargers at +4 or better.
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John LanFranca: The story has been told many times at Action Network this season: Patrick Mahomes has a losing record against the number when he is a favorite of more than a field goal.
Every time the Chargers and Chiefs have met during the Justin Herbert era, the margin of victory in these matchups have been razor thin. The Chiefs have escaped with wins by just a field goal on two occasions, and once in overtime last December. The Chargers won outright in their other two meetings, although one of those games Patrick Mahomes was being rested.
The defensive philosophy of head coach Brandon Staley is one of the major reasons why this rivalry is so closely contested. Staley is willing to give up shorter gains on the ground in order to limit the big play through the air.
The Chargers defense is 29th against the run according to DVOA, but 12th against the pass. His defense is tailor-made to limit Kansas City.
Herbert is 7-1 (87.5%) ATS in his career as an underdog of more than a field. It looks like he'll have reinforcements as well, with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams reportedly both expected to play.
These teams will once again put on an entertaining Sunday Night Football product that goes down to the wire.
Pick: Chargers +5.5 |
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Billy Ward: This one seems like it has shootout potential at first blush, but there's a lot of potential problems with that theory.
Kansas City will be without JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, leading to a depleted receiving corps against the Chargers' solid passing defense (12th in DVOA).
Kansas City hasn't found much success running the ball, so there's another problem. Meanwhile, the Chargers offense has also struggled, scoring 22.2 points (16th) after entering the season with high expectations. They're also dealing with all sorts of injuries, though Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams could return for this one.
Finally, this is a rematch of a divisional game that produced 51 points in the first meeting. Rematches tend to be lower scoring, even without factoring all of the injuries. I'd take this bet down to 51.5.
Pick: Under 52.5 |
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Sam Farley: After a nondescript debut with the Chiefs in Week 9, Kadarius Toney really showed what he could bring to this offense in Week 10.
Toney hauled in 4-of-5 targets for 57 yards and logged his first career receiving touchdown and rushed twice for 33 yards. Last week, he was +500 to score — that's all the way down to +180, but I'd argue that isn't short enough.
We began to see all the ways head coach Andy Reid can scheme a playmaker with the unique abilities of Toney. Now he has a chance to shine, in primetime, with some of his teammates missing. We are about to see a big performance.
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Ricky Henne: I don’t often bet a rushing prop on a running back in a three-way committee, but have you seen the abomination that is the Chargers run defense? They’re 29th in DVOA, per Football Outsiders, while Pro Football Focus also grades them 29th. They’ve been especially putrid over their last three games, with teams averaging a mind-boggling 190.3 yards over that span.
Enter Isiah Pacheco, who has emerged as the Chiefs’ preferred back. He was on the field for 35 offensive snaps a week ago compared to 24 for Jerick McKinnon and four for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Pacheco accounted for 16 of Kansas City’s 17 running back carries, totaling 82 yards and averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
Tonight, Kansas City will be without two of their top wide receivers. JuJu Smith-Shuster is sidelined with a concussion while Mecole Hardman was placed on IR with an abdominal injury.
The Chiefs run the ball just 36.6% of the time, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they compensate for these injuries by keeping it on the ground more than usual.
The over on running back props against Los Angeles has been money in the bank. As long as Kansas City doesn’t fall behind big, I suspect Pacheco will get enough carries against a tissue-paper-soft Chargers run defense to eclipse 53.5 yards.
