Christian Kirk Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Chiefs vs. Jaguars | 1 p.m. ET
Christian Kirk had a forgettable Week 1 game against the Indianapolis Colts. Despite leading the team in receiving yards last season, Kirk only made one catch for nine yards and wasn't involved in Calvin Ridley's debut.
Now operating out of the slot (91.3% rate), a matchup against DeForest Buckner and the Colts elite pass rush, called for more two-receiver sets featuring Ridley and Zay Jones. Backup tight end Luke Farrell (57% snap count) also saw an increased workload as he was called upon to pass block, which limited Kirk's snap count.
Upon reflection, I discovered that Kirk's lack of output was intentional and not due to poor performance. Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson addressed concerns and clarified that the lack of production resulted from the Colts' zone defense. Therefore, Kirk should have more opportunities against the Chiefs' man coverage Sunday.
Sometimes, all it takes is a new defensive scheme. Check out these splits when Kirk sees man coverage.
Christian Kirk (2022-2023)
[@FantasyPtsData]vs. Man: 0.75 fantasy points per route run (4th-best of 88-qualifying WRs)
vs. Zone: 0.28 fantasy points per route run (58th-best)Week 1: Colts (11th-lowest rate of man)
Week 2: Chiefs (8th-highest)
Week 3: Cowboys (3rd-highest) https://t.co/BhGBWXXaxi— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 15, 2023
Kirk has had success in his past two meetings against the Chiefs. He was targeted 14 times during the regular season and racked up 52 receiving yards. In the playoffs, he was targeted 12 times, scored two touchdowns and tallied 105 yards.
With the Chiefs vs. Jaguars total set at 50.5, I expect a lot of offense, especially with Travis Kelce making his 2023 debut. Trevor Lawrence's team may need to rely heavily on the offense, so I'm optimistic Kirk will have a stronger performance this week. I love his chances of going over his receiving yards total in Week 2 and would play it to -125.
