Christian McCaffrey Prop | Super Bowl Bet for 49ers-Chiefs
As the most-bet game of the season with two teams remaining and two weeks to analyze data, it's hard to find value on prop bets for superstar players because they get the most intense scrutiny of all.
However, that doesn't mean it's impossible.
I've found a widely available line for a Christian McCaffrey prop that's completely out of line with the relevant data and immediately rushed to make this bet.
Christian McCaffrey Prop: Super Bowl
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Let's start simply: McCaffrey has cleared 3.5 yards on 11 of 16 (68.9%) first carries this season in games that tackle Trent Williams also played.
Of course, 16 rush attempts aren't enough of a sample size, so we'll need to build it bigger. In doing so, I looked at a few different data sets and in every case, I'm showing value to the over.
The first dataset includes all McCaffrey rushes that came in games Williams played that were outside the red zone and not on fourth down. It's highly unlikely McCaffrey's first rush will occur in either of these situations. All of McCaffrey's first carries this season came at least 45 yards away from the goal line, and none were on fourth down.
Using this data set, we get that McCaffrey has a median of four yards on these carries, and he's cleared 3.5 yards on 116 of 217 attempts, which would equate to around -115 as fair odds to the over.
However, that seems to be a worst-case scenario estimate which even then is technically showing value at -110 to the over that is available at FanDuel.
Instead, let's look at the "scripted plays," which are commonly defined as the offense's first 15 plays. I've narrowed it to the first 12 plays, because occasionally there's a play that is run that ends with a penalty, so that play is wasted and counts as no play in the data set.
In doing so, this narrows it down to 62 rush attempts outside the red zone and not on fourth down in those 16 relevant games. McCaffrey's median isn't four yards, instead jumping to five yards with 59.7% of his totes clearing 3.5 yards.
If we narrow it even further to his first three rush attempts each game that fit the criteria, McCaffrey clears 3.5 yards 31 of 48 times, for a 64.6% rate.
I think it makes a lot of sense to use these early-game splits, especially because eliminating a lot of second-half carries where the 49ers had a big lead and defenses can key in on the run certainly is not representative of the first carry of the game.
Another thing we need to do is adjust for the level of competition McCaffrey has faced, but that only makes it more likely he'll clear this. The average team McCaffrey has faced is about 5% better than Kansas City by defensive rush DVOA, as the Chiefs sit 27th in the metric.
Overall, I have McCaffrey clearing 3.5 yards on his first attempt north of 60% of the time, so -110 is amazing value to find on a star player in the Super Bowl.
You can find this prop at FanDuel under "Rushing Props" and "Player Yards of First Rush Attempt."
Pick: First Rush Attempt — Christian McCaffrey Over 3.5 Yards (-110)
