The Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) and Baltimore Ravens (6-3) kick off NFL Week 10 tonight on Thursday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore live on Prime Video.
The Ravens are 6-point favorites over the Bengals (Ravens -6) with the game total set at over/under 52.5 points. Baltimore is -280 on the moneyline to win outright, while Cincinnati is +230 to pull off the upset.
The Bengals won 41-24 over the Raiders last week. Joe Burrow threw 5 more touchdowns and has 20 touchdowns and 4 interceptions this season despite his team’s early struggles. The Ravens won 41-10 over the Browns. Lamar Jackson has a staggering 20 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in 9 games this season and is playing at an MVP-like level again.
Let's get into my Bengals vs. Ravens predictions and my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
- Bengals vs. Ravens Spread: Ravens -6 (-115)
- Bengals vs. Ravens Over/Under: 52.5 points
- Bengals vs. Ravens Moneyline: Ravens -280, Bengals +230
- Bengals vs. Ravens Best Bet: Under 53 (-110)
- 50% of bets and 51% of the money are on the Bengals to cover the spread.
- 83% of bets and 89% of the money are on the over.
- 88% of bets and 81% of the money on the moneyline are on the Ravens.
My Ravens vs. Bengals prediction is on the under. I bet this at 53.5 on Wednesday night when that was still available, but that number was gone on Thursday morning. Then, by the afternoon, all 53s were off the board.
It looks like the total has settled at 52.5 across the board as kickoff approaches. Ideally, I'd want to bet 53, but I like the under in general as I break down below.
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Pick Against the Spread
I project this spread as Ravens -6.5, so I'm passing on betting either side of this game's spread.
Over/Under Prediction
While both offenses are potent and capable of exploiting the other team's defensive weakness, several factors point to the value on the under in this matchup.
The Bengals will likely need to rely on shorter passes to attack the Ravens’ pass-funnel defense due to the likely absence of Tee Higgins, which could slow down their pace and chew up more clock. On the other side, Lamar Jackson’s knee might not be at full strength, limiting his rushing ability and making the Ravens offense a bit easier to contain.
This game also stands out as an under through our NFL Luck Rankings, with the lowest luck total rating of the week at -8.9. Both teams currently rank high in red zone touchdown percentage, but that’s a metric often influenced by luck and prone to regression toward the league average. For example, the Saints are in the top five for red zone touchdown percentage, but they aren't considered an elite offense. Similarly, teams like the Packers and 49ers rank in the bottom five for red zone touchdown percentage, but neither is a below-average offense. This reinforces that red zone touchdown percentage is an overlooked variable that can skew market expectations.
Assuming regression in red-zone efficiency for both teams, the total offers value on the under, especially since one or two red-zone drives that end in a field goal instead of touchdowns can be decisive for the total.
Additionally, the status of Bengals lineman Orlando Brown is important; if he’s ruled out, I'd like the under even more.
Moneyline
I'm not betting on either team's moneyline.
My pick: Under 53 (-110)
Bengals vs. Ravens Picks, Predictions
After failing to score more than 21 points over three consecutive games, the Bengals offense exploded for 41 points against the Raiders last week, largely fueled by Joe Burrow’s five touchdown passes. However, the scoring surge was aided by favorable field position, including two drives starting inside the red zone after a fumble recovery. There was also a drive where Joe Burrow threw a pick-six on the second play of a drive. This led to an inflated final score of 65 total points, while the expected score (that helps fuel our Luck Rankings) was closer to 49, indicating some scoring luck.
Chase Brown has emerged as the Bengals' lead back, a role that has been solidified with Zack Moss being ruled out for the season with a neck injury. Brown has boosted the Bengals' rushing efficiency, ranking 26th in EPA/rush among 48 qualified rushers compared to Moss’s 46th. However, the Ravens present a pass-funnel defense, ranking 23rd in DVOA against the pass and third against the run. The Bengals should lean on Burrow and the passing game tonight.
LT Orlando Brown (knee) is questionable for Thursday Night Football after missing Week 9. His presence is crucial; he has only allowed eight pressures on 276 pass-blocking snaps, while backup Cody Ford allowed 10 pressures in just 92 snaps. Burrow’s efficiency drops with Brown out, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt (Y/A) when Brown plays compared to 6.1 Y/A when he doesn’t. The run game has also been impacted, averaging 4.5 yards per rush with Brown and just 3.8 without him.
Tee Higgins will likely miss his third consecutive game due to a quad injury. Burrow’s production takes a hit without Higgins, averaging 8.0 yards per dropback when Higgins is on the field and just 5.5 Y/A without him. Higgins' absence allows opposing defenses to shift more attention to Ja’Marr Chase, limiting his ability to stretch the field and produce explosive plays.
Although the Bengals managed 38 points against the Ravens back in Week 5, replicating that output may prove challenging without Higgins, who contributed a 9/83/2 line in that matchup and helped open Chase up for a 10/193/2 game.
Lamar Jackson played through a knee injury last week, missing a couple of practices and clearly being limited in his mobility despite an impressive 280/3/0 passing performance in a 41-10 win over the Broncos’ elite pass defense. Notably, Jackson only rushed three times for four yards, marking the first game all season without a designed run, indicating the knee issue restricted his usual rushing ability.
Although Jackson practiced fully on Wednesday and enters Thursday night without an injury designation, there’s a chance he may still be dealing with lingering effects that could limit his mobility. Given the situation, I expect the Ravens to lean heavily on Derrick Henry to target a Bengals defense ranked 23rd in rush DVOA. The Bengals have been effective at initiating contact early, allowing the fourth-fewest yards before contact and the fourth-lowest explosive run rate. This means that while Henry may not be completely shut down, Cincinnati could contain him enough to slow down explosive plays, which would lead to clock control and a more methodical approach by Baltimore.
The Ravens will be without TE Isaiah Likely, who has been a dynamic part of their offense. Even though newly acquired Diontae Johnson contributed last week, his playing time was limited and he may not be ready for a substantial increase in snaps on a short week.
Overall, expect a more run-heavy game plan from Baltimore with Henry as the focal point, likely resulting in a dip in passing volume as Jackson's knee and the absence of Likely could influence their offensive strategy.
Pick: Under 53 (-110)
How To Watch Bengals vs. Ravens
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium |
| Date: | Thursday, Nov. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Prime Video |
Ravens vs. Bengals is scheduled for an 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Thursday night. The game is broadcast live by Prime Video.
