The Baltimore Ravens spread at -7 has about 90% of the total money for their tilt with the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football tonight, but the player props involved are similarly popular.
At BetMGM, the three most popular prop bets by total money are below:
1.) Lamar Jackson to score the first touchdown of the game (+700)
2.) Carson Wentz and Lamar Jackson to each record 275 or more passing yards (+650)
3.) Latavius Murray to score and the Ravens to win (+240)
Jackson has scored the first touchdown in just three of his 54 career games, including the playoffs. That's a roughly 6% rate.
The +700 odds imply a probability of approximately 12.5%, according to The Action Network's metrics.
Jackson has thrown for 275 or more yards in five out of his last 37 games, including the playoffs. That's every start he's made since the 2019 season.
The rate of conversion based on that historical data is about 13.5%.
Wentz has thrown for 275 or more yards in seven out of his last 33 starts, including the playoffs, since the 2019 season. That's a rate of about 21%.
Based on those loose historical precedents since the 2019 season, the odds of both of quarterbacks throwing for more than 275 yards tonight is roughly 2.7%.
That implies odds of +3600 — a far cry from the +650 value BetMGM is offering right now.
As far as the third most popular prop goes, Latavius Murray has scored and his team has won in nine of his last 36 games for a rate of 25%. That implies odds of +300 as opposed to the +240 offered as of Monday afternoon.
In the nine games that Murray has scored in since the 2019 season, his team has won seven of those. So, if you're confident Murray gets in the end zone tonight, there's a decent historical precedent that it comes off the back of a Ravens victory.
