The Indianapolis Colts will host the New York Jets for Thursday Night Football.
Here are the five most popular player props for that contest, a PointsBet representative told The Action Network.
Colts vs. Jets Player Props
- Jonathan Taylor to score a touchdown at any time (-200)
- Michael Pittman Jr. to record 50 or more receiving yards (-250)
- Jonathan Taylor to have 75 or more rushing yards (-200)
- Carson Wentz to record 200 or more passing yards (-300)
- Jonathan Taylor to score the first touchdown (+400)
Jonathan Taylor is a popular guy for this contest. He’s responsible for three of the five most wagered-on props this Thursday. Taylor has fulfilled the most popular prop of them all in 14 out of his 23 career games for a rate of about 61%. That implies odds of about -155, less value than the -200 provided by the sportsbook.
Still, though, Taylor has scored a touchdown in five straight games, and the Jets defense isn’t the greatest. The Jets rank 28th in the NFL in defensive DVOA and are 23rd in the league against the run. This bet has decent value overall.
Taylor has fulfilled his 75 or more rush yards prop in nine of his 23 career games — a far lower clip. That rate of about 39% implies odds of roughly +153. If you just take this season into account, he’s hit this prop three out of seven games for a rate of +133.
This bet isn’t the best value play, but there’s a distinct possibility the Colts run all over the Jets. Indy will likely be playing with the lead late in the game, which precipitates a lot more run plays.
That said, Taylor has been unable to fulfill this prop twice this season against the Tennessee Titans, who are worse against the run than the Jets are. I’d say the value just isn’t there for this prop in particular.
The last Taylor prop is for him to score the first touchdown of the game.
The second-year back out of Wisconsin has done so in six of his 23 career games — actually an obscenely high rate for this particular prop. That roughly 26% rate implies odds of about +280, which means the current line is about provides about 30% in value. This prop is the one with the best value.
The other most popular props involve Michael Pittman Jr. and Carson Wentz.
Pittman’s prop has been fulfilled in nine of his 21 career games. That rate includes this season and the 2020 season, when Philip Rivers started all 16 games. The rate of conversion is about 43%, which implies odds of about +132.
This season tells a different story, though. He’s fulfilled this particular prop six out of his eight games in 2021 for implied odds of -300. The Jets have the sixth-worst pass defense in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders.
Meanwhile, Wentz’s fourth-most popular prop has been fulfilled in six out of his eight games as a Colt for implied odds of -300. It looks like this one is fairly priced. Over his career, the rate of conversion implies that his odds to fulfill this prop is about -320.
