These teams met in Week 1, and it was a complete stomping from the Buccaneers' passing offense. A lot has changed since then, so while I will consider that game, I don’t project a repeat one-sided affair.
Zach Ertz +290; Olamide Zaccheaus +350
The evolution of Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is why you can have more faith than usual for TD props. His scramble rate is unreal, with 73 total this season and 22 more than second place (Caleb Williams, 51).
Daniels’ ability to extend plays while facing a Bucs team that runs zone defense at the sixth-highest rate means we’re going to likely see a lot of underneath routes for TE Zach Ertz (+260) and WR Olamide Zaccheaus (+350) as the Bucs defense tends to allow a lot of targets/receptions to those positions. They rank in the bottom five in catches/targets for WRs and total catches for TE.
The Bucs want the Commanders to go with underneath stuff and not target WR Terry McLaurin (+150). One of the best deep threats in the NFL, McLaurin leads the team with 10 receiving TDs.
Of the three, I’d lean toward Ertz since the Bucs are 27th in defensive DVOA vs TEs, and he leads the team in red-zone targets (20). But I’m likely pairing him with Zaccheaus since he leads the team in target share vs. zone defense and has seen his role increase in Noah Brown's absence.
Mike Evans's TD odds jumped the shark in the latter stages of the season, when he was gunning for 1,000 receiving yards. While I appreciate his greatness, there’s zero chance you can have him at minus odds to score in a game involving Marshon Lattimore. The bad blood between the two has gone on for years and tends to get chippy.
When betting on TD scorers, all factors must be priced in — especially after you saw them in Week 6, when the Bucs had to redirect most of the passing traffic to WR Chris Godwin and TE Cade Otton, who both went on to score.
Jalen McMillan +200
If you want to take a swing on WR Jalen McMillan to score a TD, I wouldn't blame you. He's been absurd to close the year with seven TDs in the season's final five games; he has the most red-zone targets on the Bucs in that span.
I logged McMillan's TD on the Action App on Monday evening at +220, and he dropped to as low as +135 at some sportsbooks before rebounding back to +165. The sweet spot for him is +200 or above.
I would also mention waiting until game day, and if Bucs WR Trey Palmer tweets out that "he's pissed," I'd endorse a tiny sprinkle bet on his TD odds at +1500 or above.
VERDICT: Zach Ertz +260 | Olamide Zacchaeus +350 | Jalen McMillan at +200 or better
