The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles clash in an NFC East-themed NFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 26, at Lincoln Financial Field. The stakes are obvious: the winner punches a ticket to the Super Bowl to face either the Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs. Kickoff for Commanders-Eagles is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Beyond NFL spreads and total bets, I'm looking at Commanders vs. Eagles anytime touchdown scorers — I have picks for each team on Sunday afternoon.
Commanders vs. Eagles Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Zach Ertz Anytime Touchdown (+295; DraftKings)
- DeVonta Smith Anytime Touchdown (+190; BetMGM)
- Kenneth Gainwell Anytime Touchdown (+950; FanDuel)
Zach Ertz Anytime TD (+300)
I’ll put my hand up: I certainly didn’t think the Commanders would beat the Detroit Lions.
I thought the Lions' rushing attack would destroy Washington and leave Jayden Daniels playing catch-up all game. Instead, the Commanders continued to claw back; they took advantage of all the injuries that piled up for the Lions and put up 45 points in an offensive onslaught.
Being half wrong is OK, because while I was correct about the Commanders run defense getting gouged by the run, my TD bet on Zach Ertz (+310) came through, which made the Washington win even sweeter.
Ertz was again featured heavily when the Commanders got into the red zone with three of his five targets coming in scoring distance. That brings Ertz to 24 red-zone targets on the season with eight receiving TDs.
Facing an Eagles defense that plays a lot of man coverage — plus a potentially limited Quinyon Mitchell — makes Ertz my favorite TD bet for this game.
DeVonta Smith Anytime TD (+190)
Jalen Hurts may find some success throwing the football against the Commanders. That said, the Eagles' passing offense for the year and in the playoffs has been troubling.
Hurts hasn’t had to throw much because of Saquon Barkley’s explosiveness in the ground game, but the QB has only thrown for over 200 yards in his last six starts. And now Hurts is dealing with another knee injury. Here’s what I wrote last week for the matchup against the Rams:
"The issue with Eagles TD scorers from game to game is you know they’re going to lead with the rushing attack in most scenarios, especially when it comes to converting fourth down. Having Hurts and Barkley is a cheat code for short down-and-distance situations, which makes betting on Eagles pass-catchers troubling because Philadelphia may not need to throw in certain game scripts."
The last line hits home — Hurts has only had to throw 41 times through two playoff games while the Eagles never trailed in either game.
Barkley's performance and the weather conditions have dictated that so far in the postseason, and based on how effective Jahmyr Gibbs was last week against the Commanders (105 rush yards, 2TD), it’s hard to envision the Eagles deviating from what’s working.
Hell, even backup QB Kenny Pickett would’ve beaten the Commanders during the regular season if Jayden Daniels hadn’t led a miraculous fourth quarter comeback. In conclusion, Barkley and Hurts should see the majority of offensive touches for the Eagles this week, which is why they’re both priced at minus odds to score.
If the Commanders' run defense can actually put up a fight and make the Eagles throw, then I’m going with DeVonta Smith (+200) again.
A.J. Brown (+160) just hasn’t looked right and has openly complained about the weather affecting his performance and the Eagles' passing game overall. The Commanders play their own fair share of man defense, and with CB Marcus Lattimore, it’s fair to assume they will likely match him up with Brown as much as possible.
That’s why I’m pivoting to Smith and potentially TE Dallas Goedert (+320) again as both have been very effective against man coverage this year. But if I’m picking between the two, it’s Smith since he finished the season with as many receiving TDs as Brown.
If you prefer Goedert, I understand the logic. The Commanders finished 24th in defensive DVOA vs. TEs during the regular season, allowed eight TDs to the position (bottom-five) and Lions TE Sam LaPorta scored on them in the Divisional Round. Still, Goedert is the third option for receiving and with passing attempts likely coming at a premium, Goedert needs to be closer to +350 or above for fair value.
Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD (+950)
If you're looking at a long-shot TD bet, I’d consider a sprinkle on Kenneth Gainwell (+900).
Barkley has had insane rushing volume through two playoff games — 51 carries and playing 86% of snaps — but he missed a couple of plays against the Rams due a minor hand injury. Although Gainwell hasn’t seen much action in the postseason, Barkley's rushing volume is encouraging because it shows that the Eagles will not deviate from the run game and there’s potential for Barkley to need a breather if he continues to take a pounding.
With Hurts also on the mend and the potential for an Eagles blowout, Gainwell could see an elevated role in the red zone if the game gets out of hand.
